Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla: model vs market
| Source | Smouha SC | Draw | Ghazl El Mehalla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 38% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Published | 37% | 36% | 27% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Smouha SC, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smouha SC | 2.26 | 2.26 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.59 | 2.59 | +0.00 |
| Ghazl El Mehalla | 3.92 | 3.67 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.62
- Attack rating (Smouha SC / Ghazl El Mehalla)
- 0.60 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Smouha SC / Ghazl El Mehalla)
- 1.04 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Smouha SC goals. Columns: Ghazl El Mehalla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Smouha SC | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Ghazl El Mehalla | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.12 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Smouha SC or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| X2 (draw or Ghazl El Mehalla) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Smouha SC win by 2+ | 10% | 10.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla recent form
Smouha SC
1W 1D 4L
Ghazl El Mehalla
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Smouha SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Ghazl El Mehalla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Smouha SC at home only, Ghazl El Mehalla away only.
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Smouha SC 3 · draws 4 · Ghazl El Mehalla 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-27 | Smouha SC | 3-1 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Cup |
| 2025-08-16 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 0-0 | Smouha SC | Egypt Premier League |
| 2025-04-11 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 1-0 | Smouha SC | Premier League |
| 2024-12-26 | Smouha SC | 2-4 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Premier League |
| 2023-05-02 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 0-2 | Smouha SC | Premier League |
| 2022-12-30 | Smouha SC | 0-0 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Premier League |
| 2022-07-31 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 1-0 | Smouha SC | Premier League |
| 2022-02-27 | Smouha SC | 2-0 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Premier League |
| 2021-04-06 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 1-1 | Smouha SC | Premier League |
| 2020-12-14 | Smouha SC | 1-1 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Premier League |
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Before and after this match
- Smouha SC, next: El Gouna FC v Smouha SC analysis
- Ghazl El Mehalla, next: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad prediction