Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla Prediction & Betting Tips 12/10/2026

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Smouha SC	Draw	Ghazl El Mehalla
Model	30%	38%	33%
Market	41%	36%	24%
Published	38%	36%	26%
Edge	-11%	+2%	+9%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Smouha SC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.26Now 2.26 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Smouha SC	2.26	2.26	+0.00
Draw	2.59	2.59	+0.00
Ghazl El Mehalla	3.92	3.92	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.78Smouha SC

0.84Ghazl El Mehalla

Total expected goals: 1.62
Attack rating (Smouha SC / Ghazl El Mehalla): 0.60 / 0.81
Defence rating (Smouha SC / Ghazl El Mehalla): 1.05 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.1% 15.3% 7.0% 1.9% 0.5% 1 14.2% 14.3% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2 6.0% 5.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 3 1.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Smouha SC goals. Columns: Ghazl El Mehalla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%

Over 1.5 49%

Over 2.5 22%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 32%
No goals (0–0): 21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Smouha SC	38%	2.63
	Draw	36%	2.77
	Ghazl El Mehalla	26%	3.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	22%	4.50
	Under 2.5	78%	1.29
Both teams to score	Yes	32%	3.12
	No	68%	1.47
Double chance	1X (Smouha SC or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	64%	1.57
	X2 (draw or Ghazl El Mehalla)	62%	1.61
Handicap -1	Smouha SC win by 2+	10%	10.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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