Rayon Sports vs Black Bulls Maputo Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Rayon Sports vs Black Bulls Maputo preview

Rayon Sports face Black Bulls Maputo with 34% chances of winning for Rayon and 24% for Black Bulls. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 28%. Both teams to score stands at 24%, indicating a low likelihood of goals from either side.

Rayon Sports' expected goals are 0.74, while Black Bulls Maputo's are 0.58, suggesting a tight match. Recent form shows Rayon Sports with two draws and two losses, while Black Bulls Maputo have a mix of results, including two wins. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.

Rayon Sports vs Black Bulls Maputo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Rayon Sports	Draw	Black Bulls Maputo
Model	34%	42%	24%
Market	—	—	—
Published	34%	42%	24%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Rayon Sports and Black Bulls Maputo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.74Rayon Sports

0.58Black Bulls Maputo

Total expected goals: 1.32
Attack rating (Rayon Sports / Black Bulls Maputo): 0.74 / 0.70
Defence rating (Rayon Sports / Black Bulls Maputo): 0.91 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rayon Sports vs Black Bulls Maputo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 27.8% 14.4% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 1 18.5% 12.6% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 2 7.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 3 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Rayon Sports goals. Columns: Black Bulls Maputo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rayon Sports vs Black Bulls Maputo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 72%

Over 1.5 39%

Over 2.5 15%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 24%
No goals (0–0): 28%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rayon Sports vs Black Bulls Maputo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Rayon Sports	34%	2.95
	Draw	42%	2.40
	Black Bulls Maputo	24%	4.10
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	15%	6.75
	Under 2.5	85%	1.17
Both teams to score	Yes	24%	4.12
	No	76%	1.32
Double chance	1X (Rayon Sports or draw)	76%	1.32
	12 (either side)	58%	1.72
	X2 (draw or Black Bulls Maputo)	66%	1.51
Handicap -1	Rayon Sports win by 2+	11%	9.29
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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