Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup match between Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Al Ahli Tripoli, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Ahli Tripoli at 41%, compared to 29% for Welwalo Adigrat Uni. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% chance according to our model.

Both teams to score has a probability of 49%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 43%. Welwalo Adigrat Uni has expected goals of 1.07, while Al Ahli Tripoli has 1.32. A draw is also a possibility with a 30% chance. Factors like unexpected player performances or defensive errors could change the outcome.

Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	Draw	Al Ahli Tripoli
Model	29%	30%	41%
Market	—	—	—
Published	29%	30%	41%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Welwalo Adigrat Uni and Al Ahli Tripoli expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Welwalo Adigrat Uni

1.32Al Ahli Tripoli

Total expected goals: 2.38
Attack rating (Welwalo Adigrat Uni / Al Ahli Tripoli): 1.09 / 1.34
Defence rating (Welwalo Adigrat Uni / Al Ahli Tripoli): 1.07 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.5% 10.9% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 1 8.5% 14.2% 8.5% 3.8% 1.7% 2 5.2% 6.9% 4.5% 2.0% 0.9% 3 1.9% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Welwalo Adigrat Uni goals. Columns: Al Ahli Tripoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 70%

Over 2.5 43%

Over 3.5 22%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Al Ahli Tripoli

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	29%	3.47
	Draw	30%	3.32
	Al Ahli Tripoli	41%	2.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	43%	2.35
	Under 2.5	57%	1.74
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.03
	No	51%	1.97
Double chance	1X (Welwalo Adigrat Uni or draw)	59%	1.70
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or Al Ahli Tripoli)	71%	1.40
Handicap -1	Al Ahli Tripoli win by 2+	19%	5.14
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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