El Kanemi Warriors vs Raja Casablanca Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

El Kanemi Warriors vs Raja Casablanca preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup match between El Kanemi Warriors and Raja Casablanca, the 1X2 probabilities show Raja Casablanca at 47% to win, compared to 23% for El Kanemi Warriors. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance. El Kanemi Warriors have an expected goals figure of 0.85, while Raja Casablanca's is higher at 1.34.

El Kanemi Warriors' recent form is L-W-L-D-L-L, indicating struggles, while Raja Casablanca comes in with a stronger record of W-W-D-L-W-W. The model suggests a 37% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score. If El Kanemi Warriors can improve their attacking efficiency, they might challenge the predictions.

El Kanemi Warriors vs Raja Casablanca: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	El Kanemi Warriors	Draw	Raja Casablanca
Model	23%	31%	47%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	31%	47%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.85.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

El Kanemi Warriors and Raja Casablanca expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.85El Kanemi Warriors

1.34Raja Casablanca

Total expected goals: 2.19
Attack rating (El Kanemi Warriors / Raja Casablanca): 0.69 / 1.22
Defence rating (El Kanemi Warriors / Raja Casablanca): 1.20 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

El Kanemi Warriors vs Raja Casablanca score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.5% 13.7% 10.0% 4.5% 2.0% 1 8.3% 14.0% 8.5% 3.8% 1.7% 2 4.1% 5.4% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7% 3 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: El Kanemi Warriors goals. Columns: Raja Casablanca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

El Kanemi Warriors vs Raja Casablanca goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 37%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for El Kanemi Warriors vs Raja Casablanca

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	El Kanemi Warriors	23%	4.42
	Draw	31%	3.26
	Raja Casablanca	47%	2.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	37%	2.67
	Under 2.5	63%	1.60
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.29
	No	56%	1.77
Double chance	1X (El Kanemi Warriors or draw)	53%	1.88
	12 (either side)	69%	1.44
	X2 (draw or Raja Casablanca)	77%	1.29
Handicap -1	Raja Casablanca win by 2+	23%	4.40
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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