Kitara vs BUL preview
In the Uganda Premier League match between Kitara and BUL, the 1X2 probabilities show Kitara at 39%, BUL at 32%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a 10% chance. Kitara's expected goals are 1.33, while BUL's are 1.18, suggesting a close contest.
Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, Kitara's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while BUL has won 6 straight. This could influence the outcome, making it possible for either team to outperform expectations. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
Kitara vs BUL: model vs market
| Source | Kitara | Draw | BUL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kitara and BUL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Kitara / BUL)
- 1.21 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Kitara / BUL)
- 0.98 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kitara vs BUL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kitara goals. Columns: BUL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kitara vs BUL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kitara vs BUL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kitara | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| BUL | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kitara or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or BUL) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kitara win by 2+ | 18% | 5.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kitara and BUL recent form
Kitara
4W 1D 1L
BUL
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kitara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
BUL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kitara at home only, BUL away only.
Kitara vs BUL head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kitara 1 · draws 1 · BUL 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | BUL | 1-1 | Kitara | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-11-20 | Kitara | 1-0 | BUL | Uganda Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SC Villa v Blacks Power — match page 2026-10-27
- Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- UPDF vs URA 2026-10-27
- NEC v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-27
- Express vs Kataka — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Mbarara City vs Vipers 2026-10-28
- Entebbe UPPC vs Maroons — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- KCCA vs Lugazi 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Kitara, previous: Al Ahly vs Kitara prediction
- BUL, previous: BUL vs NEC prediction