Kitara vs Ntugasaze Prediction & Betting Tips 21/10/2026

Kitara vs Ntugasaze preview

In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Kitara and Ntugasaze, the 1X2 probabilities show Kitara at 78%, while Ntugasaze sits at just 6%. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.36 for Kitara compared to 0.53 for Ntugasaze.

Kitara's recent form includes four wins in their last six matches, while Ntugasaze has lost five out of their last six. This disparity suggests Kitara is in a stronger position. However, the 38% chance for both teams to score indicates that an unexpected goal from Ntugasaze could change the outcome.

Kitara vs Ntugasaze: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kitara	Draw	Ntugasaze
Model	77%	17%	6%
Market	—	—	—
Published	77%	17%	6%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 0.53.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kitara and Ntugasaze expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.33Kitara

0.53Ntugasaze

Total expected goals: 2.86
Attack rating (Kitara / Ntugasaze): 1.22 / 0.71
Defence rating (Kitara / Ntugasaze): 0.87 / 1.55

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kitara vs Ntugasaze score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1 12.6% 7.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 2 15.5% 8.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3 12.0% 6.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 4+ 12.1% 6.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%

Rows: Kitara goals. Columns: Ntugasaze goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kitara vs Ntugasaze goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 55%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kitara vs Ntugasaze

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kitara	77%	1.30
	Draw	17%	5.96
	Ntugasaze	6%	16.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55%	1.83
	Under 2.5	45%	2.20
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.63
	No	62%	1.62
Double chance	1X (Kitara or draw)	94%	1.07
	12 (either side)	83%	1.20
	X2 (draw or Ntugasaze)	23%	4.37
Handicap -1	Kitara win by 2+	54%	1.84
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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