Updated

Persha Liga · Matchday 16

Prykarpattia vs Kolos Kovalivka II

· MCS Rukh, Ivano-Frankivsk

Alin prediction Prykarpattia to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PrykarpattiaDrawKolos Kovalivka II
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.91.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Prykarpattia vs Kolos Kovalivka II preview

In the match between Prykarpattia and Kolos Kovalivka II, the 1X2 probabilities show Prykarpattia at 49%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (12%). Prykarpattia has struggled recently, recording 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Kolos Kovalivka II has 1 win in their last 5.

The expected goals suggest Prykarpattia might score 1.48, compared to Kolos Kovalivka II's 0.91. The model indicates a 43% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. However, Kolos Kovalivka II won the last head-to-head match, which could influence the outcome.

Prykarpattia vs Kolos Kovalivka II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePrykarpattiaDrawKolos Kovalivka II
Model49%29%22%
Market———
Published49%29%22%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.91.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Prykarpattia and Kolos Kovalivka II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48Prykarpattia
0.91Kolos Kovalivka II
Total expected goals
2.39
Attack rating (Prykarpattia / Kolos Kovalivka II)
0.75 / 0.74
Defence rating (Prykarpattia / Kolos Kovalivka II)
1.15 / 1.49

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Prykarpattia vs Kolos Kovalivka II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 7.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 1 12.3% 13.6% 5.6% 1.7% 0.5% 2 10.0% 9.1% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 3 4.9% 4.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 2.5% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Prykarpattia goals. Columns: Kolos Kovalivka II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Prykarpattia vs Kolos Kovalivka II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Prykarpattia vs Kolos Kovalivka II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Prykarpattia49%2.03
Draw29%3.47
Kolos Kovalivka II22%4.55
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.34
Under 2.557%1.75
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.11
No53%1.90
Double chance1X (Prykarpattia or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Kolos Kovalivka II)51%1.97
Handicap -1Prykarpattia win by 2+25%3.93
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Prykarpattia and Kolos Kovalivka II recent form

Prykarpattia 0W 2D 4L
Kolos Kovalivka II 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Prykarpattia at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-1
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.57
Clean sheets
4 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kolos Kovalivka II away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-5
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Prykarpattia at home only, Kolos Kovalivka II away only.

Prykarpattia vs Kolos Kovalivka II head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Prykarpattia 0 · draws 0 · Kolos Kovalivka II 1.

PrykarpattiaDrawsKolos Kovalivka II
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-26Kolos Kovalivka II1-0PrykarpattiaPersha Liga

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Prykarpattia to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Prykarpattia