Updated

Persha Liga · Matchday 15

Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol'

· MCS Rukh, Ivano-Frankivsk

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Yarud Mariupol' to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PrykarpattiaDrawYarud Mariupol'

Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol': model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePrykarpattiaDrawYarud Mariupol'
Model15%25%61%
Market31%30%39%
Published27%28%45%
Edge-4%-1%+5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.76.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Yarud Mariupol' below our published probability: +5.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol' odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Yarud Mariupol', 5 snapshots since 2026-11-05.

Opened 2.60Now 2.31 -0.29
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Prykarpattia2.352.90+0.55
Draw3.453.08-0.38
Yarud Mariupol'2.602.31-0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Prykarpattia and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.76Prykarpattia
1.78Yarud Mariupol'
Total expected goals
2.54
Attack rating (Prykarpattia / Yarud Mariupol')
0.75 / 1.44
Defence rating (Prykarpattia / Yarud Mariupol')
1.14 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol' score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.0% 12.9% 12.4% 7.4% 4.9% 1 5.0% 11.8% 9.5% 5.6% 3.7% 2 2.3% 4.1% 3.6% 2.2% 1.4% 3 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Prykarpattia goals. Columns: Yarud Mariupol' goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol' goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol'

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Prykarpattia27%3.69
Draw28%3.53
Yarud Mariupol'45%2.24
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.13
Under 2.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.20
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (Prykarpattia or draw)55%1.80
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Yarud Mariupol')73%1.37
Handicap -1Yarud Mariupol' win by 2+36%2.81
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Prykarpattia and Yarud Mariupol' recent form

Prykarpattia 0W 2D 4L
Yarud Mariupol' 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Prykarpattia at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-1
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.57
Clean sheets
4 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Yarud Mariupol' away

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.83
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Prykarpattia at home only, Yarud Mariupol' away only.

Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol' head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Prykarpattia 4 · draws 4 · Yarud Mariupol' 0.

PrykarpattiaDrawsYarud Mariupol'
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-11-23Prykarpattia3-0Yarud Mariupol'Persha Liga
2025-08-11Yarud Mariupol'0-2PrykarpattiaPersha Liga
2025-05-03Yarud Mariupol'2-3PrykarpattiaPersha Liga
2025-03-30Prykarpattia0-0Yarud Mariupol'Persha Liga
2024-05-04Prykarpattia1-0Yarud Mariupol'Persha Liga
2024-03-29Yarud Mariupol'1-1PrykarpattiaPersha Liga
2022-10-23Prykarpattia2-2Yarud Mariupol'Persha Liga
2022-09-02Yarud Mariupol'1-1PrykarpattiaPersha Liga

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match