Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' preview
In the match between Chernihiv and Yarud Mariupol', the 1X2 probabilities show Yarud Mariupol' at 56%, while Chernihiv sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. Chernihiv's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Yarud Mariupol' has 4 wins in the same period.
The expected goals highlight a significant difference, with Chernihiv at 0.86 and Yarud Mariupol' at 1.68. While the model indicates a 47% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score, the outcome could change if Chernihiv improves their attacking play or if Yarud Mariupol' underperforms defensively.
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol': model vs market
| Source | Chernihiv | Draw | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chernihiv and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Chernihiv / Yarud Mariupol')
- 0.89 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Chernihiv / Yarud Mariupol')
- 1.18 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chernihiv goals. Columns: Yarud Mariupol' goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 18% | 5.57 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chernihiv or draw) | 44% | 2.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Yarud Mariupol') | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win by 2+ | 31% | 3.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Chernihiv and Yarud Mariupol' recent form
Chernihiv
2W 0D 4L
Yarud Mariupol'
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chernihiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yarud Mariupol' away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chernihiv at home only, Yarud Mariupol' away only.
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Chernihiv 0 · draws 0 · Yarud Mariupol' 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Chernihiv | 1-4 | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| 2025-08-31 | Yarud Mariupol' | 1-0 | Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Inhulets 2026-10-31
- Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs SK Poltava — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Kulykiv v UCSA — match page 2026-11-01
- Probiy Horodenka vs Nyva Ternopil — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Chernihiv, previous: Chernihiv vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk: odds and pick
- Yarud Mariupol', previous: Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction