UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka preview
In the match between UCSA and Probiy Horodenka, the 1X2 probabilities show UCSA at 60% to win, while Probiy Horodenka sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of UCSA at 2.25 and Probiy Horodenka at 1.21. Over 2.5 goals has a probability of 67%, and both teams to score stands at 64%.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. UCSA has recorded 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Probiy Horodenka has 2 wins in the same period. Additionally, UCSA has not won against Probiy Horodenka in their last 2 encounters, with 1 draw and 1 loss. This could potentially affect UCSA's performance despite their higher probabilities.
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka: model vs market
| Source | UCSA | Draw | Probiy Horodenka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.21.
- The market prices UCSA below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on UCSA, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSA | 2.12 | 2.15 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.35 | +0.05 |
| Probiy Horodenka | 3.10 | 3.15 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
UCSA and Probiy Horodenka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.45
- Attack rating (UCSA / Probiy Horodenka)
- 1.01 / 0.92
- Defence rating (UCSA / Probiy Horodenka)
- 1.23 / 1.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UCSA goals. Columns: Probiy Horodenka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Probiy Horodenka | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UCSA or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Probiy Horodenka) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | UCSA win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
UCSA and Probiy Horodenka recent form
UCSA
1W 2D 3L
Probiy Horodenka
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UCSA at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Probiy Horodenka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 3.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: UCSA at home only, Probiy Horodenka away only.
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: UCSA 0 · draws 1 · Probiy Horodenka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Probiy Horodenka | 1-0 | UCSA | Persha Liga |
| 2025-09-27 | UCSA | 0-0 | Probiy Horodenka | Persha Liga |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Inhulets vs Kulykiv 2026-11-06
- Chernihiv v Kolos Kovalivka II — match page 2026-11-07
- Metal Kharkiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Prykarpattia v Yarud Mariupol' — match page 2026-11-07
- Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya II — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Oleksandria vs SK Poltava — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- UCSA, previous: Kulykiv vs UCSA: odds and pick
- Probiy Horodenka, previous: Probiy Horodenka vs Nyva Ternopil prediction