Oleksandria vs SK Poltava preview
In the upcoming match between Oleksandria and SK Poltava, the 1X2 probabilities show Oleksandria at 38%, a draw at 31%, and SK Poltava at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Oleksandria has an expected goals figure of 1.21, while SK Poltava stands at 1.05.
The prediction for Over 2.5 goals is 39%, and both teams to score is at 47%. Oleksandria's recent form includes 2 draws and 2 wins from their last 6 matches, while SK Poltava has 2 wins and 4 losses. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava: model vs market
| Source | Oleksandria | Draw | SK Poltava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Oleksandria, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oleksandria | 2.44 | 2.48 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.45 | +0.10 |
| SK Poltava | 2.55 | 2.60 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Oleksandria and SK Poltava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Oleksandria / SK Poltava)
- 0.97 / 1.39
- Defence rating (Oleksandria / SK Poltava)
- 0.70 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oleksandria goals. Columns: SK Poltava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oleksandria vs SK Poltava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 38% | 2.66 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| SK Poltava | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oleksandria or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or SK Poltava) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oleksandria win by 2+ | 17% | 5.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Oleksandria and SK Poltava recent form
Oleksandria
2W 3D 1L
SK Poltava
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oleksandria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SK Poltava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Oleksandria at home only, SK Poltava away only.
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Oleksandria 2 · draws 1 · SK Poltava 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Oleksandria | 5-2 | SK Poltava | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-04-03 | SK Poltava | 3-3 | Oleksandria | Ukraine Premier League |
| 2025-09-27 | Oleksandria | 1-0 | SK Poltava | Ukraine Premier League |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Inhulets vs Kulykiv 2026-11-06
- Chernihiv v Kolos Kovalivka II — match page 2026-11-07
- Metal Kharkiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Prykarpattia v Yarud Mariupol' — match page 2026-11-07
- Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya II — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka 2026-11-08
- Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Oleksandria, previous: Polissya II v Oleksandria analysis
- SK Poltava, previous: Viktoriya Mykolaivka – SK Poltava, 2026-11-01