Updated

Persha Liga · Matchday 15

Inhulets vs Kulykiv

· Inhulets Stadium, Petrovo

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Kulykiv to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
InhuletsDrawKulykiv

Inhulets vs Kulykiv: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInhuletsDrawKulykiv
Model26%25%49%
Market———
Published26%25%49%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.26.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Inhulets and Kulykiv expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.26Inhulets
1.79Kulykiv
Total expected goals
3.06
Attack rating (Inhulets / Kulykiv)
0.92 / 1.46
Defence rating (Inhulets / Kulykiv)
1.14 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inhulets vs Kulykiv score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 7.4% 7.6% 4.5% 3.0% 1 4.9% 11.7% 9.6% 5.7% 3.8% 2 3.8% 6.7% 6.0% 3.6% 2.4% 3 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 4+ 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Inhulets goals. Columns: Kulykiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inhulets vs Kulykiv goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inhulets vs Kulykiv

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Inhulets26%3.85
Draw25%3.95
Kulykiv49%2.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.44
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.56
Double chance1X (Inhulets or draw)51%1.95
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Kulykiv)74%1.35
Handicap -1Kulykiv win by 2+27%3.64
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Inhulets and Kulykiv recent form

Inhulets 2W 0D 4L
Kulykiv 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Inhulets at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-2
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.83
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kulykiv away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-3
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Inhulets at home only, Kulykiv away only.

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match