Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Inhulets preview
In the match between Lokomotiv Kyiv and Inhulets, the 1X2 probabilities show Lokomotiv Kyiv at 58%, while Inhulets sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which has a 12% chance of occurring. Lokomotiv Kyiv has a higher expected goals figure of 1.75 compared to Inhulets' 0.81.
However, the recent form could influence the outcome. Lokomotiv Kyiv is on a positive run with four wins in their last six matches, while Inhulets has only managed two wins in the same period. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 47%, indicating uncertainty in goal-scoring potential. The confidence grade is C, which suggests caution in predictions.
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Inhulets: model vs market
| Source | Lokomotiv Kyiv | Draw | Inhulets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 25% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lokomotiv Kyiv and Inhulets expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Lokomotiv Kyiv / Inhulets)
- 1.12 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Lokomotiv Kyiv / Inhulets)
- 0.90 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Inhulets score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lokomotiv Kyiv goals. Columns: Inhulets goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Inhulets goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Inhulets
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 58% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.92 | |
| Inhulets | 16% | 6.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lokomotiv Kyiv or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Inhulets) | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Kyiv win by 2+ | 34% | 2.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lokomotiv Kyiv and Inhulets recent form
Lokomotiv Kyiv
4W 2D 0L
Inhulets
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lokomotiv Kyiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inhulets away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lokomotiv Kyiv at home only, Inhulets away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Lokomotiv Kyiv, previous: UCSA – Lokomotiv Kyiv, 2026-10-25
- Inhulets, previous: Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka II prediction