Updated

Persha Liga · Matchday 15

Metal Kharkiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv

· OSC Metalist, Kharkiv

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was Metal Kharkiv to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Metal KharkivDrawLokomotiv Kyiv

Metal Kharkiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMetal KharkivDrawLokomotiv Kyiv
Model40%29%32%
Market41%28%31%
Published41%28%31%
Edge0%0%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Metal Kharkiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Metal Kharkiv, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-05.

Opened 2.60Now 2.20 -0.40
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Metal Kharkiv2.602.20-0.40
Draw3.653.25-0.40
Lokomotiv Kyiv2.282.90+0.62

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Metal Kharkiv and Lokomotiv Kyiv expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.38Metal Kharkiv
1.21Lokomotiv Kyiv
Total expected goals
2.59
Attack rating (Metal Kharkiv / Lokomotiv Kyiv)
1.02 / 1.21
Defence rating (Metal Kharkiv / Lokomotiv Kyiv)
0.93 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Metal Kharkiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.7% 7.8% 5.5% 2.2% 0.9% 1 9.1% 13.8% 7.6% 3.1% 1.2% 2 7.1% 8.7% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8% 3 3.3% 4.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Metal Kharkiv goals. Columns: Lokomotiv Kyiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Metal Kharkiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Metal Kharkiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Metal Kharkiv41%2.46
Draw28%3.57
Lokomotiv Kyiv31%3.20
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.08
Under 2.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.17
Double chance1X (Metal Kharkiv or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Lokomotiv Kyiv)59%1.69
Handicap -1Metal Kharkiv win by 2+19%5.24
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Metal Kharkiv and Lokomotiv Kyiv recent form

Metal Kharkiv 2W 2D 2L
Lokomotiv Kyiv 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Metal Kharkiv at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-2
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Lokomotiv Kyiv away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Metal Kharkiv at home only, Lokomotiv Kyiv away only.

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match