Updated

Persha Liga · Matchday 15

Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya II

· Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Ternopil

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was Nyva Ternopil to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Nyva TernopilDrawPolissya II

Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNyva TernopilDrawPolissya II
Model62%23%16%
Market53%26%21%
Published55%25%19%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Nyva Ternopil below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Nyva Ternopil, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-05.

Opened 1.70Now 1.70 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Nyva Ternopil1.701.70+0.00
Draw3.903.50-0.40
Polissya II3.904.38+0.48

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nyva Ternopil and Polissya II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.04Nyva Ternopil
0.94Polissya II
Total expected goals
2.98
Attack rating (Nyva Ternopil / Polissya II)
1.08 / 1.01
Defence rating (Nyva Ternopil / Polissya II)
0.86 / 1.42

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 3.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1 9.4% 10.7% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 2 10.6% 9.9% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 3 7.2% 6.8% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 5.9% 5.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Nyva Ternopil goals. Columns: Polissya II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nyva Ternopil vs Polissya II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Nyva Ternopil55%1.80
Draw25%3.99
Polissya II19%5.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.85
No46%2.18
Double chance1X (Nyva Ternopil or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Polissya II)45%2.25
Handicap -1Nyva Ternopil win by 2+39%2.58
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Nyva Ternopil and Polissya II recent form

Nyva Ternopil 2W 4D 0L
Polissya II 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Nyva Ternopil at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Polissya II away

Record (W-D-L)
0-4-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Nyva Ternopil at home only, Polissya II away only.

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match