Updated

Persha Liga · Matchday 15

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

· Yuvileiny Stadium, Sumy

Alin prediction Ahrobiznes Volochysk to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Viktoriya MykolaivkaDrawAhrobiznes Volochysk
  • WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk preview

In the fixture between Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Ahrobiznes Volochysk, the 1X2 probabilities show Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 40%, while Viktoriya Mykolaivka sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 12% chance. Viktoriya Mykolaivka has an expected goals figure of 0.97, compared to Ahrobiznes Volochysk's 1.20.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka's recent form is L-D-W-D-W-D, while Ahrobiznes Volochysk has performed strongly with W-W-W-W-D-W. This could influence the outcome, as Ahrobiznes Volochysk has won both of their last two encounters. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 37%, and both teams to score is at 45%, indicating a possibility for a low-scoring match.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceViktoriya MykolaivkaDrawAhrobiznes Volochysk
Model33%31%36%
Market———
Published33%31%36%
Edge———
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Ahrobiznes Volochysk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.20Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Total expected goals
2.34
Attack rating (Viktoriya Mykolaivka / Ahrobiznes Volochysk)
1.08 / 1.33
Defence rating (Viktoriya Mykolaivka / Ahrobiznes Volochysk)
0.84 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.0% 10.3% 6.9% 2.8% 1.1% 1 9.7% 14.5% 7.9% 3.2% 1.2% 2 6.3% 7.5% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 3 2.4% 2.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Viktoriya Mykolaivka goals. Columns: Ahrobiznes Volochysk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Viktoriya Mykolaivka33%3.01
Draw31%3.26
Ahrobiznes Volochysk36%2.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.42
Under 2.559%1.71
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.05
No51%1.95
Double chance1X (Viktoriya Mykolaivka or draw)64%1.57
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or Ahrobiznes Volochysk)67%1.50
Handicap -1Ahrobiznes Volochysk win by 2+16%6.27
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Ahrobiznes Volochysk recent form

Viktoriya Mykolaivka 3W 3D 0L
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Viktoriya Mykolaivka at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-1-1
Win rate
71%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Viktoriya Mykolaivka at home only, Ahrobiznes Volochysk away only.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 0 · draws 0 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2.

Viktoriya MykolaivkaDrawsAhrobiznes Volochysk
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-0Viktoriya MykolaivkaPersha Liga
2025-10-25Viktoriya Mykolaivka1-2Ahrobiznes VolochyskPersha Liga

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Ahrobiznes Volochysk to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Ahrobiznes Volochysk