Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein: model vs market
| Source | Azerbaijan | Draw | Liechtenstein |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 26% | 12% |
| Market | 83% | 12% | 4% |
| Published | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Edge | -22% | +14% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.61.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Azerbaijan, 7 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 1.11 | 1.12 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 8.75 | 7.70 | -1.05 |
| Liechtenstein | 43.00 | 21.00 | -22.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Azerbaijan / Liechtenstein)
- 0.70 / 0.27
- Defence rating (Azerbaijan / Liechtenstein)
- 1.63 / 2.36
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Azerbaijan goals. Columns: Liechtenstein goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Azerbaijan | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.41 | |
| Liechtenstein | 6% | 15.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.63 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Azerbaijan or draw) | 94% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Liechtenstein) | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Azerbaijan win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein recent form
Azerbaijan
0W 2D 4L
Liechtenstein
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other League D - 3 fixtures
- Malta v Gibraltar — match page 2026-10-01