Malta vs Gibraltar: model vs market
| Source | Malta | Draw | Gibraltar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| Published | 69% | 20% | 10% |
| Edge | -18% | +7% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Malta vs Gibraltar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Malta, 8 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malta | 1.32 | 1.26 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.00 | +0.10 |
| Gibraltar | 12.25 | 12.60 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Malta and Gibraltar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Malta / Gibraltar)
- 0.70 / 0.40
- Defence rating (Malta / Gibraltar)
- 1.71 / 2.60
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Malta vs Gibraltar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Malta goals. Columns: Gibraltar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Malta vs Gibraltar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Malta vs Gibraltar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malta | 69% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Gibraltar | 10% | 9.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Malta or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Gibraltar) | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Malta win by 2+ | 33% | 3.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Malta and Gibraltar recent form
Malta
2W 1D 3L
Gibraltar
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Malta vs Gibraltar head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Malta 2 · draws 0 · Gibraltar 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-06 | Malta | 1-0 | Gibraltar | Friendlies |
| 2020-10-07 | Malta | 2-0 | Gibraltar | Friendlies |