UEFA Nations League · League D - 4

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

· Bakcell Arena, Baku· Referee Gustavo Correia

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Azerbaijan to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AzerbaijanDrawLithuania

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAzerbaijanDrawLithuania
Model21%28%50%
Market40%31%29%
Published35%31%34%
Edge-18%-3%+21%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Azerbaijan, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-02.

Opened 2.27Now 2.38 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Azerbaijan2.272.38+0.10
Draw3.003.00+0.00
Lithuania3.293.25-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Azerbaijan and Lithuania expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.91Azerbaijan
1.52Lithuania
Total expected goals
2.43
Attack rating (Azerbaijan / Lithuania)
0.61 / 0.83
Defence rating (Azerbaijan / Lithuania)
1.35 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.0% 12.2% 10.2% 5.2% 2.7% 1 6.8% 13.4% 9.3% 4.7% 2.5% 2 3.6% 5.5% 4.2% 2.1% 1.1% 3 1.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Azerbaijan goals. Columns: Lithuania goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Azerbaijan35%2.85
Draw31%3.26
Lithuania34%2.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.28
Under 2.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.09
No52%1.92
Double chance1X (Azerbaijan or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or Lithuania)65%1.54
Handicap -1Azerbaijan win by 2+8%13.21
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Azerbaijan and Lithuania recent form

Azerbaijan 0W 2D 4L
Lithuania 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Azerbaijan at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Lithuania away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Azerbaijan at home only, Lithuania away only.

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Azerbaijan 0 · draws 2 · Lithuania 0.

AzerbaijanDrawsLithuania
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-27Lithuania1-1AzerbaijanUEFA Nations League
2019-03-25Azerbaijan0-0LithuaniaFriendlies

Other League D - 4 fixtures