Malta vs Andorra Prediction & Betting Tips 04/10/2026

Malta vs Andorra: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Malta	Draw	Andorra
Model	39%	33%	28%
Market	58%	28%	14%
Published	53%	29%	18%
Edge	-19%	+5%	+14%

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Malta vs Andorra odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Malta, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-02.

Opened 1.67Now 1.62 -0.05

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Malta	1.67	1.62	-0.05
Draw	3.25	3.35	+0.10
Andorra	5.50	6.50	+1.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Malta and Andorra expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Malta

0.92Andorra

Total expected goals: 2.06
Attack rating (Malta / Andorra): 0.70 / 0.47
Defence rating (Malta / Andorra): 1.48 / 1.34

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Malta vs Andorra score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.1% 10.4% 5.4% 1.7% 0.5% 1 13.2% 14.7% 6.2% 1.9% 0.5% 2 8.3% 7.6% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 3 3.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Malta goals. Columns: Andorra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Malta vs Andorra goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 62%

Over 2.5 34%

Over 3.5 15%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Malta vs Andorra

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Malta	53%	1.89
	Draw	29%	3.43
	Andorra	18%	5.60
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	34%	2.97
	Under 2.5	66%	1.51
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.38
	No	58%	1.73
Double chance	1X (Malta or draw)	82%	1.22
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Andorra)	47%	2.13
Handicap -1	Malta win by 2+	17%	5.90
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Malta and Andorra recent form

Malta 2W 2D 2L

Andorra 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Malta at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Andorra away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Malta at home only, Andorra away only.

Malta vs Andorra head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Malta 3 · draws 2 · Andorra 0.

60% 40% 0%

MaltaDrawsAndorra

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-09-24	Andorra	1-2	Malta	UEFA Nations League
2024-11-19	Malta	0-0	Andorra	UEFA Nations League
2024-09-10	Andorra	0-1	Malta	UEFA Nations League
2020-11-14	Malta	3-1	Andorra	UEFA Nations League
2020-10-10	Andorra	0-0	Malta	UEFA Nations League

Other League D - 4 fixtures

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