Czechia vs England: model vs market
| Source | Czechia | Draw | England |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 15% | 72% |
| Market | 10% | 17% | 73% |
| Published | 10% | 17% | 73% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.20 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Czechia vs England odds movement
Median bookmaker price on England, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia | 5.50 | 10.00 | +4.50 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 5.50 | +1.50 |
| England | 1.50 | 1.30 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Czechia and England expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.60
- Attack rating (Czechia / England)
- 1.18 / 1.91
- Defence rating (Czechia / England)
- 1.23 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Czechia vs England score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Czechia goals. Columns: England goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Czechia vs England goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Czechia vs England
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Czechia | 10% | 9.64 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.97 | |
| England | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Czechia or draw) | 27% | 3.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or England) | 90% | 1.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | England win by 2+ | 54% | 1.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Czechia and England recent form
Czechia
0W 3D 3L
England
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Czechia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Czechia at home only, England away only.
Czechia vs England head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Czechia 1 · draws 0 · England 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-22 | Czechia | 0-1 | England | Euro Championship |
| 2019-10-11 | Czechia | 2-1 | England | Euro Championship |
| 2019-03-22 | England | 5-0 | Czechia | Euro Championship |
Other League A - 2 fixtures
- Spain v Croatia — match page 2026-09-29