Spain vs Croatia: model vs market
| Source | Spain | Draw | Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 79% | 14% | 8% |
| Published | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Edge | -33% | +13% | +19% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Spain vs Croatia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Spain, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1.33 | 1.21 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 7.00 | +2.00 |
| Croatia | 8.50 | 12.25 | +3.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Spain and Croatia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Spain / Croatia)
- 1.69 / 1.65
- Defence rating (Spain / Croatia)
- 0.53 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Spain vs Croatia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Spain goals. Columns: Croatia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Spain vs Croatia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Spain vs Croatia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spain | 70% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.90 | |
| Croatia | 13% | 7.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Spain or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Croatia) | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win by 2+ | 25% | 4.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Spain and Croatia recent form
Spain
6W 0D 0L
Croatia
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Croatia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Spain at home only, Croatia away only.
Spain vs Croatia head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Spain 4 · draws 1 · Croatia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-15 | Spain | 3-0 | Croatia | Euro Championship |
| 2023-06-18 | Croatia | 0-0 | Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| 2021-06-28 | Croatia | 3-5 | Spain | Euro Championship |
| 2018-11-15 | Croatia | 3-2 | Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| 2018-09-11 | Spain | 6-0 | Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
| 2016-06-21 | Croatia | 2-1 | Spain | Euro Championship |
| 2012-06-18 | Croatia | 0-1 | Spain | Euro Championship |
Other League A - 2 fixtures
- Czechia vs England — team news & stats 2026-09-29