Scotland vs Switzerland: model vs market
| Source | Scotland | Draw | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| Market | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Published | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Edge | -12% | -8% | +20% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Switzerland below the model: +20.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Scotland vs Switzerland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Switzerland, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 3.00 | 4.33 | +1.33 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.48 | +0.38 |
| Switzerland | 2.30 | 1.87 | -0.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Scotland and Switzerland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Scotland / Switzerland)
- 1.03 / 1.47
- Defence rating (Scotland / Switzerland)
- 1.12 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Scotland vs Switzerland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Scotland goals. Columns: Switzerland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Scotland vs Switzerland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Scotland vs Switzerland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Scotland | 19% | 5.30 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Switzerland | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Scotland or draw) | 44% | 2.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Switzerland) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Switzerland win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Scotland and Switzerland recent form
Scotland
2W 1D 3L
Switzerland
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Switzerland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Scotland at home only, Switzerland away only.
Scotland vs Switzerland head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Scotland 0 · draws 1 · Switzerland 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-19 | Scotland | 1-1 | Switzerland | Euro Championship |
Other League B - 2 fixtures
- Slovenia v FYR Macedonia — match page 2026-09-29