UEFA Nations League · League B - 2

Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia

· Stožice Stadium, Ljubljana· Referee Andrea Colombo

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Slovenia to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SloveniaDrawFYR Macedonia

Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSloveniaDrawFYR Macedonia
Model31%34%35%
Market58%26%15%
Published51%28%20%
Edge-27%+7%+20%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Slovenia, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 1.75Now 1.62 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Slovenia1.751.62-0.13
Draw3.253.60+0.35
FYR Macedonia4.986.10+1.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Slovenia and FYR Macedonia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97Slovenia
1.05FYR Macedonia
Total expected goals
2.02
Attack rating (Slovenia / FYR Macedonia)
0.61 / 0.95
Defence rating (Slovenia / FYR Macedonia)
0.81 / 1.58

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.6% 12.6% 7.3% 2.6% 0.8% 1 11.5% 14.9% 7.1% 2.5% 0.8% 2 6.2% 6.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 3 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Slovenia goals. Columns: FYR Macedonia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Slovenia51%1.94
Draw28%3.56
FYR Macedonia20%4.88
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.11
Under 2.568%1.47
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.43
No59%1.70
Double chance1X (Slovenia or draw)80%1.26
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or FYR Macedonia)49%2.06
Handicap -1Slovenia win by 2+12%8.38
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Slovenia and FYR Macedonia recent form

Slovenia 0W 4D 2L
FYR Macedonia 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Slovenia at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Slovenia at home only, FYR Macedonia away only.

Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Slovenia 0 · draws 2 · FYR Macedonia 1.

SloveniaDrawsFYR Macedonia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-06-01FYR Macedonia1-1SloveniaFriendlies
2019-10-10FYR Macedonia2-1SloveniaEuro Championship
2019-03-24Slovenia1-1FYR MacedoniaEuro Championship

Other League B - 2 fixtures