Updated

Zambia Super League · Matchday 8

Konkola Blades vs Nchanga Rangers

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Konkola Blades to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Konkola BladesDrawNchanga Rangers

Konkola Blades vs Nchanga Rangers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKonkola BladesDrawNchanga Rangers
Model61%26%13%
Market———
Published61%26%13%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.65.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Konkola Blades and Nchanga Rangers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68Konkola Blades
0.65Nchanga Rangers
Total expected goals
2.33
Attack rating (Konkola Blades / Nchanga Rangers)
1.54 / 0.89
Defence rating (Konkola Blades / Nchanga Rangers)
1.01 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Konkola Blades vs Nchanga Rangers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.8% 5.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1 15.3% 11.7% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 2 13.8% 8.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 3 7.7% 5.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 4.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Konkola Blades goals. Columns: Nchanga Rangers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Konkola Blades vs Nchanga Rangers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Konkola Blades vs Nchanga Rangers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Konkola Blades61%1.63
Draw26%3.88
Nchanga Rangers13%7.73
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.43
Under 2.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.51
No60%1.66
Double chance1X (Konkola Blades or draw)87%1.15
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Nchanga Rangers)39%2.59
Handicap -1Konkola Blades win by 2+35%2.83
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Konkola Blades and Nchanga Rangers recent form

Konkola Blades 5W 0D 1L
Nchanga Rangers 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Konkola Blades at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Nchanga Rangers away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Konkola Blades at home only, Nchanga Rangers away only.

Konkola Blades vs Nchanga Rangers head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Konkola Blades 5 · draws 2 · Nchanga Rangers 3.

Konkola BladesDrawsNchanga Rangers
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-23Nchanga Rangers1-2Konkola BladesZambia Super League
2026-01-31Konkola Blades1-0Nchanga RangersZambia Super League
2017-11-25Konkola Blades1-2Nchanga RangersSuper League
2017-07-23Nchanga Rangers0-0Konkola BladesSuper League
2015-08-08Nchanga Rangers1-0Konkola BladesSuper League
2015-04-11Konkola Blades0-0Nchanga RangersSuper League
2014-09-07Konkola Blades1-0Nchanga RangersSuper League
2014-05-10Nchanga Rangers1-3Konkola BladesSuper League
2013-11-09Konkola Blades2-0Nchanga RangersSuper League
2013-07-03Nchanga Rangers2-0Konkola BladesSuper League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match