NAPSA Stars vs Nkana Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

NAPSA Stars vs Nkana preview

In the Zambia Super League fixture between NAPSA Stars and Nkana, the 1X2 probabilities show NAPSA Stars at 41%, a draw at 37%, and Nkana at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of NAPSA Stars, with an 18% chance.

Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with NAPSA Stars recording D-W-D-W-L-D and Nkana at W-D-L-W-L-D. The expected goals are 0.99 for NAPSA Stars and 0.66 for Nkana, indicating a low-scoring match could be on the cards. However, the low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 23% and both teams to score at 32% suggest that a more dynamic game could disrupt the expected outcome.

NAPSA Stars vs Nkana: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	NAPSA Stars	Draw	Nkana
Model	41%	37%	23%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	37%	23%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.66.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

NAPSA Stars and Nkana expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.99NAPSA Stars

0.66Nkana

Total expected goals: 1.65
Attack rating (NAPSA Stars / Nkana): 1.03 / 0.94
Defence rating (NAPSA Stars / Nkana): 0.99 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

NAPSA Stars vs Nkana score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.5% 11.5% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 1 17.7% 13.8% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2 9.4% 6.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3 3.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: NAPSA Stars goals. Columns: Nkana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

NAPSA Stars vs Nkana goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%

Over 1.5 50%

Over 2.5 23%

Over 3.5 9%

Both teams to score: 32%
No goals (0–0): 21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for NAPSA Stars vs Nkana

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	NAPSA Stars	41%	2.45
	Draw	37%	2.74
	Nkana	23%	4.42
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	23%	4.37
	Under 2.5	77%	1.30
Both teams to score	Yes	32%	3.17
	No	68%	1.46
Double chance	1X (NAPSA Stars or draw)	77%	1.29
	12 (either side)	63%	1.58
	X2 (draw or Nkana)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	NAPSA Stars win by 2+	16%	6.17
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer