NAPSA Stars vs Nkana preview
In the upcoming fixture between NAPSA Stars and Nkana, the 1X2 probabilities show NAPSA Stars at 30%, a draw at 38%, and Nkana at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-0, with a 21% chance. Both teams to score stands at 32%, while Over 2.5 goals is at just 22%.
Recent form indicates NAPSA Stars have struggled, with 5 games resulting in L-D-L-D-D-D, while Nkana has performed better, winning 4 of their last 6 matches. Expected goals are close, with NAPSA Stars at 0.78 and Nkana at 0.82. A draw is plausible, but if NAPSA Stars can improve their finishing, the outcome could differ from the predicted scoreline.
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana: model vs market
| Source | NAPSA Stars | Draw | Nkana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 38% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 30% | 38% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
NAPSA Stars and Nkana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.60
- Attack rating (NAPSA Stars / Nkana)
- 0.90 / 1.13
- Defence rating (NAPSA Stars / Nkana)
- 1.01 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NAPSA Stars goals. Columns: Nkana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NAPSA Stars vs Nkana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAPSA Stars | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Nkana | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.15 |
| No | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NAPSA Stars or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| X2 (draw or Nkana) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nkana win by 2+ | 11% | 9.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NAPSA Stars and Nkana recent form
NAPSA Stars
0W 4D 2L
Nkana
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NAPSA Stars at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Nkana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: NAPSA Stars at home only, Nkana away only.
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: NAPSA Stars 2 · draws 4 · Nkana 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | NAPSA Stars | 1-1 | Nkana | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-11-30 | Nkana | 1-0 | NAPSA Stars | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-01-25 | Nkana | 0-1 | NAPSA Stars | Super League |
| 2024-09-14 | NAPSA Stars | 0-1 | Nkana | Super League |
| 2024-03-16 | NAPSA Stars | 1-0 | Nkana | Super League |
| 2023-10-21 | Nkana | 1-1 | NAPSA Stars | Super League |
| 2023-05-06 | Nkana | 1-0 | NAPSA Stars | Super League |
| 2022-11-26 | NAPSA Stars | 1-1 | Nkana | Super League |
| 2021-06-27 | NAPSA Stars | 0-0 | Nkana | Super League |
| 2021-05-19 | Nkana | 4-1 | NAPSA Stars | Super League |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Roan United vs ZESCO United 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- NAPSA Stars, previous: NAPSA Stars v Power Dynamos analysis
- Nkana, previous: Nkana vs Kansanshi Dynamos: odds and pick