Roan United vs ZESCO United Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Roan United vs ZESCO United preview

In the upcoming match between Roan United and ZESCO United, the 1X2 probabilities show Roan United at 37%, ZESCO United at 32%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, which has an 11% chance.

While Roan United has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.19 compared to ZESCO United's 1.10, the match could see different outcomes if both teams manage to score, as our model indicates a 48% chance for both teams to score. Additionally, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 40%, suggesting that a low-scoring game is more probable.

Roan United vs ZESCO United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Roan United	Draw	ZESCO United
Model	37%	31%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	31%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Roan United and ZESCO United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Roan United

1.10ZESCO United

Total expected goals: 2.28
Attack rating (Roan United / ZESCO United): 1.21 / 1.50
Defence rating (Roan United / ZESCO United): 1.02 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Roan United vs ZESCO United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 9.8% 6.1% 2.2% 0.8% 1 10.8% 14.6% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 7.2% 7.9% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 3 2.8% 3.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Roan United goals. Columns: ZESCO United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Roan United vs ZESCO United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 68%

Over 2.5 40%

Over 3.5 20%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Roan United vs ZESCO United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Roan United	37%	2.72
	Draw	31%	3.22
	ZESCO United	32%	3.11
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	40%	2.50
	Under 2.5	60%	1.67
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.10
	No	52%	1.91
Double chance	1X (Roan United or draw)	68%	1.47
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or ZESCO United)	63%	1.58
Handicap -1	Roan United win by 2+	16%	6.19
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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