Nchanga Rangers vs Trident Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Nchanga Rangers vs Trident preview

Nchanga Rangers face Trident with a 39% chance of winning compared to Trident's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Nchanga Rangers' expected goals of 0.96 against Trident's 0.71.

However, the match could see different outcomes if both teams manage to score, as the probability for both teams to score is 33%. Additionally, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 23%. With Nchanga Rangers in mixed recent form (L-L-L-D-W-W) and Trident coming off a loss, the dynamics could shift unexpectedly.

Nchanga Rangers vs Trident: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nchanga Rangers	Draw	Trident
Model	39%	37%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	39%	37%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nchanga Rangers and Trident expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96Nchanga Rangers

0.71Trident

Total expected goals: 1.67
Attack rating (Nchanga Rangers / Trident): 0.89 / 0.83
Defence rating (Nchanga Rangers / Trident): 1.19 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nchanga Rangers vs Trident score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.2% 12.1% 4.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1 16.8% 14.1% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 2 8.7% 6.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 3 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Nchanga Rangers goals. Columns: Trident goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nchanga Rangers vs Trident goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%

Over 1.5 51%

Over 2.5 23%

Over 3.5 9%

Both teams to score: 33%
No goals (0–0): 20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nchanga Rangers vs Trident

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nchanga Rangers	39%	2.58
	Draw	37%	2.73
	Trident	25%	4.06
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	23%	4.28
	Under 2.5	77%	1.30
Both teams to score	Yes	33%	3.07
	No	67%	1.48
Double chance	1X (Nchanga Rangers or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	63%	1.58
	X2 (draw or Trident)	61%	1.63
Handicap -1	Nchanga Rangers win by 2+	15%	6.66
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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