Francs Borains vs Dender preview
In the fixture between Francs Borains and Dender, the 1X2 probabilities show Dender at 51%, while Francs Borains sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. Dender's expected goals are 1.60 compared to Francs Borains' 0.97, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 51%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 47%, suggesting that while Dender is favored, Francs Borains could still find the net. The recent form shows Dender winning their last 6 matches, while Francs Borains has mixed results with 4 wins in their last 6.
Francs Borains vs Dender: model vs market
| Source | Francs Borains | Draw | Dender |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 28% | 51% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 44% |
| Published | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Francs Borains vs Dender odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dender, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francs Borains | 3.19 | 3.20 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.32 | +0.00 |
| Dender | 2.04 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Francs Borains and Dender expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Francs Borains / Dender)
- 0.89 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Francs Borains / Dender)
- 0.95 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Francs Borains vs Dender score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Francs Borains goals. Columns: Dender goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Francs Borains vs Dender goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Francs Borains vs Dender
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Francs Borains | 26% | 3.78 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Dender | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Francs Borains or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Dender) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dender win by 2+ | 27% | 3.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Francs Borains and Dender recent form
Francs Borains
4W 0D 2L
Dender
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Francs Borains at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 71% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dender away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Francs Borains at home only, Dender away only.
Francs Borains vs Dender head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Francs Borains 0 · draws 1 · Dender 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-19 | Francs Borains | 0-3 | Dender | Challenger Pro League |
| 2023-12-05 | Dender | 2-0 | Francs Borains | Challenger Pro League |
| 2022-02-19 | Dender | 3-1 | Francs Borains | First Amateur Division |
| 2021-12-19 | Francs Borains | 1-1 | Dender | First Amateur Division |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- RSC Anderlecht II v K. Lierse S.K. — match page 2026-10-23
- Seraing United v Excelsior Virton — match page 2026-10-24
- KRC Genk II vs Club Brugge II 2026-10-24
- Lokeren-Temse vs KAA Gent II — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- AS Eupen v Beerschot VA — match page 2026-10-25
- Liège vs Patro Eisden 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Francs Borains, previous: OH Leuven vs Francs Borains: odds and pick
- Dender, previous: Standard Liege v Dender analysis