Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ preview
In the Bolivia Primera División fixture, Real Tomayapo has a 49% chance of winning against Gualberto Villarroel SJ, who have a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% probability. Real Tomayapo's expected goals are 1.44, compared to Gualberto Villarroel SJ's 0.88, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, recent form shows Real Tomayapo with two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Gualberto Villarroel SJ has lost four of their last six. Both teams to score has a 46% chance, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 41%. These numbers suggest that while Real Tomayapo may be favored, their inconsistent form could lead to unexpected outcomes.
Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ: model vs market
| Source | Real Tomayapo | Draw | Gualberto Villarroel SJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Real Tomayapo and Gualberto Villarroel SJ expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Real Tomayapo / Gualberto Villarroel SJ)
- 0.56 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Real Tomayapo / Gualberto Villarroel SJ)
- 0.92 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Tomayapo goals. Columns: Gualberto Villarroel SJ goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Tomayapo | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Tomayapo or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Gualberto Villarroel SJ) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Tomayapo win by 2+ | 25% | 4.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Tomayapo and Gualberto Villarroel SJ recent form
Real Tomayapo
1W 2D 3L
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Tomayapo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 4 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 20 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Gualberto Villarroel SJ away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-6
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
- They have won 2 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Tomayapo at home only, Gualberto Villarroel SJ away only.
Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Real Tomayapo 1 · draws 0 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 3-2 | Real Tomayapo | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-08-03 | Real Tomayapo | 2-1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-03-30 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 3-1 | Real Tomayapo | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 22 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Real Tomayapo, previous: San Antonio Bulo Bulo v Real Tomayapo analysis
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ, previous: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá prediction