Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá: model vs market
| Source | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Draw | Guabirá |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gualberto Villarroel SJ, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 2.09 | 1.71 | -0.38 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.79 | +0.11 |
| Guabirá | 2.81 | 3.90 | +1.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Guabirá expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Gualberto Villarroel SJ / Guabirá)
- 0.73 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Gualberto Villarroel SJ / Guabirá)
- 1.23 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gualberto Villarroel SJ goals. Columns: Guabirá goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Guabirá | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Guabirá) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ win by 2+ | 19% | 5.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ and Guabirá recent form
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
0W 2D 4L
Guabirá
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.30
- Goals against / match
- 1.70
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 2 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 20 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Guabirá away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-6
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.90
- Goals against / match
- 2.90
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
- They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gualberto Villarroel SJ at home only, Guabirá away only.
Expected lineups
Gualberto Villarroel SJ lineup · 4-4-2
- 25 Roberto Carlos Rivas Rivera
- 4 Gonzalo Vaca Salvatierra
- 20 F. Aguilar
- 26 J. Lencinas
- 2 J. Ramallo
- 11 Moresche
- 38 L. Vargas
- 17 Elmer Quispe
- 55 J. Goyeneche
- 9 R. Monteiro
- 7 A. Cáceres
Bench: R. Orihuela, R. Ferrufino, M. Calero, S. Valdez, S. Galindo, L. Zeballos, G. Justiniano, L. R. Cruz Valverde, D. Akologo
Guabirá lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 13 J. Araúz
- 29 N. Masskooni
- 27 Rafael Corrales
- 6 C. Áñez
- 2 J. Barro
- 77 Thiago Ribeiro
- 8 A. Moreno
- 37 T. Chavez
- 15 Rafinha
- 7 G. Peredo
- 11 S. Garzón
Bench: Juan Carlos Parada, M. Maciel, M. Tellez, Yuto Baigorria, D. Fernandez, D. Da Silva, P. Luján, V. Abrego
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2 · draws 0 · Guabirá 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Guabirá | 3-0 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-11-29 | Guabirá | 2-1 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-06-20 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 4-1 | Guabirá | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2024-11-17 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 5-0 | Guabirá | Primera División |
| 2024-07-28 | Guabirá | 1-0 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | Primera División |
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Before and after this match
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ, next: Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ: odds and pick
- Guabirá, next: Guabirá – Oriente Petrolero, 2026-10-18