Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro: model vs market
| Source | Universitario de Vinto | Draw | Real Oruro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | +7% | -2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universitario de Vinto below the model: +6.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universitario de Vinto, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario de Vinto | 1.69 | 1.69 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.00 |
| Real Oruro | 3.92 | 3.92 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universitario de Vinto and Real Oruro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.42
- Attack rating (Universitario de Vinto / Real Oruro)
- 0.79 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Universitario de Vinto / Real Oruro)
- 1.09 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universitario de Vinto goals. Columns: Real Oruro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario de Vinto | 55% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Real Oruro | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universitario de Vinto or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Oruro) | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitario de Vinto win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Universitario de Vinto and Real Oruro recent form
Universitario de Vinto
2W 1D 3L
Real Oruro
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universitario de Vinto at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.70
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
- They have won 5 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Real Oruro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-5
- Win rate
- 30%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
- They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Universitario de Vinto at home only, Real Oruro away only.
Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Universitario de Vinto 0 · draws 1 · Real Oruro 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Real Oruro | 4-1 | Universitario de Vinto | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-09-22 | Universitario de Vinto | 2-2 | Real Oruro | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-05-05 | Real Oruro | 2-0 | Universitario de Vinto | Bolivia Primera División |
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