Updated

Bolivia Primera División · Apertura - 21

Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro

· Estadio Hipolito Lazarte, Cochabamba· Referee J. Gutierrez

Full time1 – 3

Alin prediction was Universitario de Vinto to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Universitario de VintoDrawReal Oruro

Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUniversitario de VintoDrawReal Oruro
Model61%21%18%
Market62%21%18%
Published61%21%18%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.18.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Universitario de Vinto, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.69Now 1.47 -0.22
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Universitario de Vinto1.691.47-0.22
Draw3.954.39+0.44
Real Oruro3.925.09+1.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Universitario de Vinto and Real Oruro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.25Universitario de Vinto
1.18Real Oruro
Total expected goals
3.42
Attack rating (Universitario de Vinto / Real Oruro)
0.79 / 0.82
Defence rating (Universitario de Vinto / Real Oruro)
1.10 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 3.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 1 6.5% 9.5% 5.1% 2.0% 0.8% 2 8.2% 9.7% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 3 6.2% 7.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 5.9% 6.9% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6%

Rows: Universitario de Vinto goals. Columns: Real Oruro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Universitario de Vinto61%1.63
Draw21%4.81
Real Oruro18%5.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.98
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.60
No37%2.68
Double chance1X (Universitario de Vinto or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Real Oruro)39%2.59
Handicap -1Universitario de Vinto win by 2+39%2.55
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Universitario de Vinto and Real Oruro recent form

Universitario de Vinto 2W 1D 3L
Real Oruro 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Universitario de Vinto at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-4
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.70
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 10
  • They have won 5 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 20 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Real Oruro away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-5
Win rate
30%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 10
  • They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Universitario de Vinto at home only, Real Oruro away only.

Expected lineups

Universitario de Vinto lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 J. Careaga
  2. 70 Julio Lazarte
  3. 28 J. Pinto
  4. 27 B. Calderon
  5. 76 E. Mendoza
  6. 6 Marco Gomez
  7. 24 H. Rodríguez
  8. 22 J. Calicho
  9. 7 H. Dorrego
  10. 21 G. Cuellar
  11. 32 F. Pasadore

Bench: Gustavo Alexis Visalla Condori, A. Llano, Didí Torrico, J. Veizaga, S. Mendoza, A. Jara, L. Cabrera Suarez, D. Vargas, A. Cuestas, O. Blanco, D. Saavedra

Real Oruro lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 13 I. Peña
  2. 31 R. J. Balceras Cuellar
  3. 22 E. Rivera
  4. 5 L. Corulo
  5. 33 F. Gatti
  6. 30 J. Ari Cruz
  7. 6 A. Rivera
  8. 26 H. Tifner
  9. 18 Y. Calle
  10. 9 D. Pinto
  11. 65 Adán Alexis Félix Bravo

Bench: A. Quiñonez, D. Castellón, Y. Vallejos, R. Méndez, F. Vargas, R. Ardaya, J. Montenegro, S. Garcia, J. P. Gomez, C. Siles

Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Universitario de Vinto 0 · draws 2 · Real Oruro 5.

Universitario de VintoDrawsReal Oruro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-08Real Oruro4-1Universitario de VintoBolivia Primera División
2026-03-10Universitario de Vinto1-1Real OruroFriendlies Clubs
2026-03-07Real Oruro4-3Universitario de VintoFriendlies Clubs
2025-10-29Real Oruro3-0Universitario de VintoCopa de la División Profesional
2025-10-03Universitario de Vinto1-2Real OruroCopa de la División Profesional
2025-09-22Universitario de Vinto2-2Real OruroBolivia Primera División
2025-05-05Real Oruro2-0Universitario de VintoBolivia Primera División

Other Apertura - 21 fixtures

Before and after this match