Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero: model vs market
| Source | Always Ready | Draw | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 90% | 8% | 3% |
| Market | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| Published | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.61 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Always Ready below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.09, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Always Ready, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Always Ready | 1.06 | 1.06 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 10.00 | 10.00 | +0.00 |
| Independiente Petrolero | 20.12 | 20.12 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Always Ready and Independiente Petrolero expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.20
- Attack rating (Always Ready / Independiente Petrolero)
- 1.45 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Always Ready / Independiente Petrolero)
- 0.61 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Always Ready goals. Columns: Independiente Petrolero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Always Ready | 87% | 1.15 |
| Draw | 9% | 11.44 | |
| Independiente Petrolero | 4% | 24.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Always Ready or draw) | 96% | 1.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| X2 (draw or Independiente Petrolero) | 13% | 7.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Always Ready win by 2+ | 77% | 1.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Always Ready and Independiente Petrolero recent form
Always Ready
3W 3D 0L
Independiente Petrolero
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Always Ready at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-1
- Win rate
- 70%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
- They have won 12 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
Independiente Petrolero away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.89
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 9
- They have won 7 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Always Ready at home only, Independiente Petrolero away only.
Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Always Ready 1 · draws 1 · Independiente Petrolero 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Independiente Petrolero | 0-0 | Always Ready | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-12-14 | Independiente Petrolero | 5-2 | Always Ready | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-07-20 | Always Ready | 5-0 | Independiente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División |
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