Updated

Bolivia Primera División · Apertura - 21

Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero

· Estadio Municipal de El Alto, El Alto· Referee I. N. Mendez Chavez

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Always Ready to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Always ReadyDrawIndependiente Petrolero

Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlways ReadyDrawIndependiente Petrolero
Model90%7%3%
Market82%11%6%
Published84%10%5%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.62 vs 0.59.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Always Ready, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.06Now 1.11 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Always Ready1.061.11+0.05
Draw10.008.00-2.00
Independiente Petrolero20.1214.25-5.88

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Always Ready and Independiente Petrolero expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.62Always Ready
0.59Independiente Petrolero
Total expected goals
4.21
Attack rating (Always Ready / Independiente Petrolero)
1.46 / 0.74
Defence rating (Always Ready / Independiente Petrolero)
0.61 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1 5.1% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 2 9.7% 5.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 3 11.8% 6.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 27.1% 16.0% 4.7% 0.9% 0.2%

Rows: Always Ready goals. Columns: Independiente Petrolero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 79%
Over 3.5 61%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Always Ready84%1.19
Draw10%9.60
Independiente Petrolero5%18.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579%1.26
Under 2.521%4.78
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.29
No56%1.78
Double chance1X (Always Ready or draw)95%1.06
12 (either side)90%1.12
X2 (draw or Independiente Petrolero)16%6.31
Handicap -1Always Ready win by 2+77%1.30
Push (exactly one goal)13%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Always Ready and Independiente Petrolero recent form

Always Ready 3W 3D 0L
Independiente Petrolero 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Always Ready at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-1
Win rate
70%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
5 of 10
  • They have won 13 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 20 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente Petrolero away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-4
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.56
Goals against / match
1.89
Clean sheets
1 of 9
  • They have won 7 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Always Ready at home only, Independiente Petrolero away only.

Expected lineups

Always Ready lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 A. Baroja
  2. 14 C. Medina
  3. 26 E. Restrepo
  4. 22 R. Gómez
  5. 18 C. Rodriguez
  6. 6 R. Lima
  7. 5 A. Quiroga
  8. 11 J. Uzeda
  9. 7 J. Amoroso
  10. 9 E. Triverio

Bench: J. Herrera, Nicolas Villarroel Galindo, S. Mustafá, Darío Torrico, A. Rambal, J. Godoy, C. Algarañaz, J. Ojeda, H. Galvis, Ramon, K. Estrada

Independiente Petrolero lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 12 Jhunior Vera
  2. 34 G. Mendoza
  3. 3 L. Crescencio
  4. 50 Roni Santos
  5. 2 S. Torres
  6. 6 D. Rojas
  7. 14 Cristian Jhamil Urdininea Zambrana
  8. 19 G. Cristaldo
  9. 9 Gean
  10. 20 A. Mercado

Bench: Luis Braihan Palma Escobar, R. Cardozo, J. Bejarano, L. Sanchez, W. Soleto, Juan David Morales Ruiz, G. Álvarez, Willie, Ferreirinha

Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Always Ready 5 · draws 3 · Independiente Petrolero 2.

Always ReadyDrawsIndependiente Petrolero
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Independiente Petrolero0-0Always ReadyBolivia Primera División
2025-12-14Independiente Petrolero5-2Always ReadyBolivia Primera División
2025-07-20Always Ready5-0Independiente PetroleroBolivia Primera División
2024-12-17Independiente Petrolero3-7Always ReadyPrimera División
2024-09-15Always Ready0-0Independiente PetroleroPrimera División
2024-03-31Always Ready0-1Independiente PetroleroPrimera División
2024-02-23Independiente Petrolero1-1Always ReadyPrimera División
2023-11-07Always Ready3-2Independiente PetroleroPrimera División
2023-08-09Always Ready3-2Independiente PetroleroCopa de la División Profesional
2023-04-09Independiente Petrolero1-2Always ReadyPrimera División

Other Apertura - 21 fixtures

Before and after this match