Bolívar vs Blooming: model vs market
| Source | Bolívar | Draw | Blooming |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| Published | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Edge | -5% | +3% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Bolívar vs Blooming odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bolívar, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolívar | 1.10 | 1.06 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 7.90 | 9.65 | +1.75 |
| Blooming | 13.72 | 22.50 | +8.78 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bolívar and Blooming expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.29
- Attack rating (Bolívar / Blooming)
- 1.52 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Bolívar / Blooming)
- 0.81 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bolívar vs Blooming score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bolívar goals. Columns: Blooming goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bolívar vs Blooming goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bolívar vs Blooming
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolívar | 82% | 1.23 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.29 | |
| Blooming | 6% | 15.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bolívar or draw) | 94% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Blooming) | 18% | 5.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win by 2+ | 45% | 2.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bolívar and Blooming recent form
Bolívar
5W 0D 1L
Blooming
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bolívar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 3.30
- Goals against / match
- 1.10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 14 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Blooming away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-5
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.78
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 9
- They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bolívar at home only, Blooming away only.
Expected lineups
Bolívar lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 C. Lampe
- 4 Jesús Sagredo
- 33 F. Mena
- 3 X. Arreaga
- 8 L. Paz
- 7 J. Velásquez
- 23 L. Justiniano
- 6 E. Vaca
- 14 R. Matheus
- 9 M. Cauteruccio
- 27 D. Asprilla
Bench: S. Echeverría, B. Arce, B. Miranda, J. Morales, L. Chávez, J. García, A. Ayhuana, E. Saavedra, E. Rivero, D. Romero, C. Melgar
Blooming lineup · 4-4-2
- 71 G. Almada
- 24 Eduardo Justiniano Vaca
- 22 J. Vila
- 44 M. Enoumba
- 10 R. Hinojosa
- 8 Moisés Villarroel
- 6 R. Spenhay
- 19 F. Ramos
- 88 G. Bazan
- 29 B. Garcés
Bench: B. Uraezaña, M. Cabral, D. Durán, Miguel Villarroel, J. Mercado, Roberto Melgar Simoes, E. Álvarez, A. Oliveros, J. Carrasco, S. Espinoza, G. Cuasace
Bolívar vs Blooming head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bolívar 6 · draws 4 · Blooming 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Blooming | 1-1 | Bolívar | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2026-09-27 | Bolívar | 3-0 | Blooming | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2026-05-10 | Blooming | 0-0 | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2026-02-28 | Blooming | 1-3 | Bolívar | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| 2026-02-26 | Bolívar | 5-1 | Blooming | Torneo Amistoso de Verano |
| 2025-12-19 | Bolívar | 5-0 | Blooming | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-12-16 | Blooming | 1-1 | Bolívar | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-10-18 | Blooming | 1-2 | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-08-16 | Blooming | 1-1 | Bolívar | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-05-22 | Bolívar | 3-1 | Blooming | Copa de la División Profesional |
Other Apertura - 21 fixtures
- San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs Real Tomayapo 2026-10-09
- Universitario de Vinto v Real Oruro — match page 2026-10-10
- Oriente Petrolero vs ABB — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Real Potosí vs The Strongest 2026-10-11
- Aurora v Nacional Potosí — match page 2026-10-11
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá 2026-10-12
- Always Ready v Independiente Petrolero — match page 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Bolívar, next: Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar: odds and pick
- Blooming, next: Blooming v Independiente Petrolero analysis