Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar preview
Nacional Potosí faces Bolívar with 33% chances for a home win and 42% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.52 for Nacional Potosí and 1.75 for Bolívar. Both teams to score sits at 65%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 63%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.
Nacional Potosí's recent form shows D-L-W-W-L-W, while Bolívar boasts an impressive W-W-W-W-W-W streak. The head-to-head record shows Nacional Potosí has 0 wins, 2 draws, and Bolívar has 1 win in their last 3 encounters. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar: model vs market
| Source | Nacional Potosí | Draw | Bolívar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Market | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Published | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Edge | +11% | +2% | -12% |
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bolívar, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Potosí | 4.12 | 4.15 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 3.88 | -0.15 |
| Bolívar | 1.64 | 1.67 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nacional Potosí and Bolívar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.27
- Attack rating (Nacional Potosí / Bolívar)
- 0.96 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Nacional Potosí / Bolívar)
- 0.95 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nacional Potosí goals. Columns: Bolívar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional Potosí | 25% | 4.05 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Bolívar | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.53 |
| No | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nacional Potosí or draw) | 49% | 2.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Bolívar) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolívar win by 2+ | 23% | 4.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nacional Potosí and Bolívar recent form
Nacional Potosí
3W 1D 2L
Bolívar
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nacional Potosí at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-3
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
Bolívar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.10
- Goals against / match
- 1.10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
- They have won 15 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Nacional Potosí at home only, Bolívar away only.
Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nacional Potosí 3 · draws 2 · Bolívar 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Bolívar | 1-1 | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-12-22 | Bolívar | 1-4 | Nacional Potosí | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-12-20 | Nacional Potosí | 0-2 | Bolívar | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-12-05 | Bolívar | 5-2 | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-07-10 | Bolívar | 2-1 | Nacional Potosí | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2025-06-29 | Nacional Potosí | 1-1 | Bolívar | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-06-26 | Nacional Potosí | 3-0 | Bolívar | Copa de la División Profesional |
| 2024-11-24 | Bolívar | 5-3 | Nacional Potosí | Primera División |
| 2024-07-28 | Nacional Potosí | 2-1 | Bolívar | Primera División |
| 2023-10-21 | Bolívar | 4-3 | Nacional Potosí | Primera División |
Other Apertura - 22 fixtures
- ABB vs Real Potosí — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2026-10-17
- Real Oruro v Aurora — match page 2026-10-17
- Universitario de Vinto vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Blooming vs Independiente Petrolero 2026-10-17
- The Strongest vs Always Ready — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Nacional Potosí, previous: Aurora v Nacional Potosí analysis
- Bolívar, previous: Bolívar vs Blooming: odds and pick