Real Oruro vs Aurora preview
In the match between Real Oruro and Aurora, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Oruro at 36%, a draw at 25%, and Aurora at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Real Oruro recording W-L-L-W-D-L and Aurora at D-L-W-W-D-D.
The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 68%. Real Oruro's expected goals stand at 1.82, while Aurora's is 1.59. The head-to-head record shows Real Oruro with 1 win and 2 draws against Aurora, who have not won in their last three encounters.
Real Oruro vs Aurora: model vs market
| Source | Real Oruro | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Market | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Published | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Edge | +8% | -1% | -7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Oruro vs Aurora odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aurora, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Oruro | 2.99 | 2.65 | -0.34 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.54 | -0.21 |
| Aurora | 2.04 | 2.27 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Oruro and Aurora expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Real Oruro / Aurora)
- 0.92 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Real Oruro / Aurora)
- 1.29 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Oruro vs Aurora score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Oruro goals. Columns: Aurora goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Oruro vs Aurora goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Oruro vs Aurora
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Oruro | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Aurora | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Oruro or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Aurora) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win by 2+ | 16% | 6.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Oruro and Aurora recent form
Real Oruro
2W 1D 3L
Aurora
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Oruro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-6
- Win rate
- 30%
- Goals for / match
- 1.70
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
- They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Aurora away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-3
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.09
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Oruro at home only, Aurora away only.
Expected lineups
Real Oruro lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 31 R. J. Balceras Cuellar
- 22 E. Rivera
- 5 L. Corulo
- 33 F. Gatti
- 6 A. Rivera
- 26 H. Tifner
- 18 Y. Calle
- 65 Adán Alexis Félix Bravo
- 30 J. Ari Cruz
- 9 D. Pinto
Bench: A. Quiñonez, I. Peña, D. Castellón, Yhon Jairo Villegas Soleto, R. Méndez, J. Velez, R. Ardaya, J. Berrios, J. Montenegro, S. Garcia, J. P. Gomez, C. Siles
Aurora lineup · 4-4-2
- 12 R. Cordano
- 70 J. Torrico
- 4 I. Vidaurre
- 22 J. Velázquez
- 16 D. Barro
- 14 H. Sánchez
- 5 A. Amarilla
- 69 A. Terrazas
- 20 A. Pacheco
- 9 M. Rangel
Bench: J. Terrazas, H. Vaca, R. Ramallo, H. Mojica, Jose Cordova, S. Rojas, M. Ortiz, I. Huayhuata, Alvaro Rios, D. Villca, O. Vaca
Real Oruro vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Real Oruro 1 · draws 2 · Aurora 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Aurora | 1-1 | Real Oruro | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-09-17 | Real Oruro | 5-3 | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-04-25 | Aurora | 2-2 | Real Oruro | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 22 fixtures
- ABB vs Real Potosí — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2026-10-17
- Universitario de Vinto vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Blooming vs Independiente Petrolero 2026-10-17
- Nacional Potosí v Bolívar — match page 2026-10-18
- The Strongest vs Always Ready — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Real Oruro, previous: Universitario de Vinto vs Real Oruro: odds and pick
- Aurora, previous: Aurora v Nacional Potosí analysis