Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero preview
In the fixture between Guabirá and Oriente Petrolero, the 1X2 probabilities show Guabirá at 39%, Oriente Petrolero at 35%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 63%, and there is a 59% probability for Over 2.5 goals.
Guabirá has a recent form of W-L-D-L-D-W, while Oriente Petrolero shows W-W-L-L-D-W. The expected goals are 1.58 for Guabirá and 1.50 for Oriente Petrolero. The head-to-head record favors Oriente Petrolero with 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 3 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero: model vs market
| Source | Guabirá | Draw | Oriente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Edge | -10% | 0% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Guabirá, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guabirá | 1.92 | 2.10 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.54 | -0.21 |
| Oriente Petrolero | 3.17 | 2.88 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Guabirá and Oriente Petrolero expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (Guabirá / Oriente Petrolero)
- 0.94 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Guabirá / Oriente Petrolero)
- 1.17 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guabirá goals. Columns: Oriente Petrolero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guabirá | 41% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.92 | |
| Oriente Petrolero | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guabirá or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Oriente Petrolero) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guabirá win by 2+ | 16% | 6.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Guabirá and Oriente Petrolero recent form
Guabirá
1W 2D 3L
Oriente Petrolero
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guabirá at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.30
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oriente Petrolero away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.45
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 9 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Guabirá at home only, Oriente Petrolero away only.
Guabirá vs Oriente Petrolero head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Guabirá 0 · draws 1 · Oriente Petrolero 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Oriente Petrolero | 2-2 | Guabirá | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-11-03 | Oriente Petrolero | 4-0 | Guabirá | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-05-25 | Guabirá | 1-3 | Oriente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División |
Other Apertura - 22 fixtures
- ABB vs Real Potosí — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Real Tomayapo vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2026-10-17
- Real Oruro v Aurora — match page 2026-10-17
- Universitario de Vinto vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Blooming vs Independiente Petrolero 2026-10-17
- Nacional Potosí v Bolívar — match page 2026-10-18
- The Strongest vs Always Ready — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Guabirá, previous: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá prediction
- Oriente Petrolero, previous: Oriente Petrolero vs ABB prediction