Oriente Petrolero vs ABB: model vs market
| Source | Oriente Petrolero | Draw | ABB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Published | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Edge | +14% | -7% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.06 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Oriente Petrolero below the model: +14.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Oriente Petrolero vs ABB odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Oriente Petrolero, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oriente Petrolero | 1.42 | 1.42 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
| ABB | 5.67 | 5.67 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Oriente Petrolero and ABB expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.04
- Attack rating (Oriente Petrolero / ABB)
- 1.16 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Oriente Petrolero / ABB)
- 0.85 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oriente Petrolero vs ABB score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oriente Petrolero goals. Columns: ABB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oriente Petrolero vs ABB goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oriente Petrolero vs ABB
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oriente Petrolero | 67% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.39 | |
| ABB | 14% | 7.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oriente Petrolero or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or ABB) | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oriente Petrolero win by 2+ | 60% | 1.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Oriente Petrolero and ABB recent form
Oriente Petrolero
3W 1D 2L
ABB
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oriente Petrolero at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.22
- Goals against / match
- 0.78
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
ABB away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-8
- Win rate
- 10%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
- They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Oriente Petrolero at home only, ABB away only.
Oriente Petrolero vs ABB head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Oriente Petrolero 0 · draws 1 · ABB 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | ABB | 3-1 | Oriente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-12-11 | ABB | 5-2 | Oriente Petrolero | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-07-13 | Oriente Petrolero | 3-3 | ABB | Bolivia Primera División |
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- Bolívar vs Blooming — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá 2026-10-12
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