Oriente Petrolero vs ABB Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Oriente Petrolero vs ABB: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Oriente Petrolero	Draw	ABB
Model	78%	14%	8%
Market	70%	17%	12%
Published	72%	16%	11%
Edge	+2%	-1%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.06 vs 0.98.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Oriente Petrolero vs ABB odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Oriente Petrolero, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.42Now 1.29 -0.13

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Oriente Petrolero	1.42	1.29	-0.13
Draw	4.50	5.25	+0.75
ABB	5.67	7.50	+1.83

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Oriente Petrolero and ABB expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.06Oriente Petrolero

0.98ABB

Total expected goals: 4.04
Attack rating (Oriente Petrolero / ABB): 1.16 / 0.87
Defence rating (Oriente Petrolero / ABB): 0.86 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Oriente Petrolero vs ABB score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1 4.9% 5.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 2 8.3% 8.1% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 3 8.4% 8.2% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 4+ 13.8% 13.5% 6.6% 2.1% 0.6%

Rows: Oriente Petrolero goals. Columns: ABB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Oriente Petrolero vs ABB goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 92%

Over 2.5 77%

Over 3.5 57%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Oriente Petrolero vs ABB

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Oriente Petrolero	72%	1.38
	Draw	16%	6.09
	ABB	11%	8.96
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	77%	1.30
	Under 2.5	23%	4.31
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.50
Double chance	1X (Oriente Petrolero or draw)	89%	1.13
	12 (either side)	84%	1.20
	X2 (draw or ABB)	28%	3.62
Handicap -1	Oriente Petrolero win by 2+	60%	1.67
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Oriente Petrolero and ABB recent form

Oriente Petrolero 3W 1D 2L

ABB 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Oriente Petrolero at home

Record (W-D-L): 6-1-2
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 2.22
Goals against / match: 0.78
Clean sheets: 4 of 9

They have won 9 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 20 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).

ABB away

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-8
Win rate: 10%
Goals for / match: 1.20
Goals against / match: 3.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 10

They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have failed to score in 3 of 20 matches.
They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Oriente Petrolero at home only, ABB away only.

Expected lineups

Oriente Petrolero lineup · 4-3-3

1 A. Torrez
6 D. Rodríguez
3 Mizael Monteiro
77 J. Herrera
20 J. Lovera
40 O. Perdomo
7 J. Flores
33 C. Saucedo

Bench: M. Bonilla, O. Siles, L. Vaca, J. Bernal, S. Galindo, J. Rojas, J. Velasco, J. Escobar, J. Guzman, D. Roca, N. Nacif

ABB lineup · 4-2-3-1

25 J. Cuellar
22 S. Reyes
2 J. Riascos
55 Augusto Héctor Seimandi
75 D. Valda
30 A. Bejarano
3 A. Chumacero
18 G. Rea
40 Andrés Guillermo
7 L. Figueroa
11 Felipe Fajardo Juan

Bench: A. Riascos, Sebastian Claure, J. Briceño, E. Paniagua, Carlos Jemio, A. Camacho, J. Rojas, B. Espinoza, F. Zamora, O. Preciado, Z. La Fuente

Oriente Petrolero vs ABB head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Oriente Petrolero 0 · draws 1 · ABB 2.

0% 33% 67%

Oriente PetroleroDrawsABB

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-11	ABB	3-1	Oriente Petrolero	Bolivia Primera División
2025-12-11	ABB	5-2	Oriente Petrolero	Bolivia Primera División
2025-07-13	Oriente Petrolero	3-3	ABB	Bolivia Primera División

Other Apertura - 21 fixtures

San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs Real Tomayapo 2026-10-09
Universitario de Vinto v Real Oruro — match page 2026-10-10
Real Potosí vs The Strongest 2026-10-11
Aurora v Nacional Potosí — match page 2026-10-11
Bolívar vs Blooming — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Guabirá 2026-10-12
Always Ready v Independiente Petrolero — match page 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

Oriente Petrolero, next: Guabirá – Oriente Petrolero, 2026-10-18
ABB, next: ABB v Real Potosí analysis