Updated

Bolivia Primera División · Apertura - 21

Aurora vs Nacional Potosí

· Felix Capriles, Cochabamba· Referee M. Lopez

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Aurora to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AuroraDrawNacional Potosí

Aurora vs Nacional Potosí: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAuroraDrawNacional Potosí
Model51%26%23%
Market54%24%22%
Published54%24%22%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.11.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aurora vs Nacional Potosí odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aurora, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.61Now 1.67 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aurora1.611.67+0.06
Draw3.843.81-0.03
Nacional Potosí4.474.14-0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aurora and Nacional Potosí expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Aurora
1.11Nacional Potosí
Total expected goals
2.85
Attack rating (Aurora / Nacional Potosí)
0.91 / 0.93
Defence rating (Aurora / Nacional Potosí)
0.91 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aurora vs Nacional Potosí score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 5.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 1 9.0% 12.3% 6.2% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.8% 9.7% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 3 5.1% 5.6% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 3.3% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Aurora goals. Columns: Nacional Potosí goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aurora vs Nacional Potosí goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aurora vs Nacional Potosí

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aurora54%1.87
Draw24%4.11
Nacional Potosí22%4.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.85
Under 2.546%2.18
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (Aurora or draw)78%1.29
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Nacional Potosí)46%2.15
Handicap -1Aurora win by 2+29%3.48
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aurora and Nacional Potosí recent form

Aurora 2W 2D 2L
Nacional Potosí 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aurora at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-1
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
2.11
Goals against / match
1.44
Clean sheets
2 of 9
  • They have won 7 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Nacional Potosí away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-6
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 10
  • They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 20 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aurora at home only, Nacional Potosí away only.

Expected lineups

Aurora lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 12 R. Cordano
  2. 70 J. Torrico
  3. 22 J. Velázquez
  4. 23 I. Huayhuata
  5. 16 D. Barro
  6. 5 A. Amarilla
  7. 14 H. Sánchez
  8. 10 R. Ramallo
  9. 69 A. Terrazas
  10. 9 M. Rangel

Bench: J. Terrazas, I. Vidaurre, H. Vaca, H. Mojica, S. Rojas, J. Sánchez, A. Pacheco, M. Ortiz, Alvaro Rios, D. Villca, S. Altamirano

Nacional Potosí lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 23 Pedro Galindo
  2. 16 A. Torrico
  3. 33 L. Demiquel
  4. 5 S. Alvarez
  5. 34 K. Medina
  6. 28 S. Peña
  7. 22 D. Hoyos
  8. 18 P. Azogue
  9. 10 M. Núñez
  10. 11 M. Tomianovic
  11. 19 W. Álvarez

Bench: E. Arauz, Rodrigo Fabián Ávila Sóliz, M. Solís, T. Tobar, Juan Batista, Jhojan Fenando Arce Pari, Ó. Baldomar, J. Orellana, C. Abastoflor, Weslen Júnior, Y. Martínez, D. Villalba

Aurora vs Nacional Potosí head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Aurora 3 · draws 2 · Nacional Potosí 5.

AuroraDrawsNacional Potosí
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-10Nacional Potosí2-0AuroraBolivia Primera División
2025-09-27Aurora1-2Nacional PotosíBolivia Primera División
2025-05-16Nacional Potosí3-1AuroraBolivia Primera División
2024-12-17Aurora1-1Nacional PotosíPrimera División
2024-09-14Nacional Potosí1-3AuroraPrimera División
2024-03-12Aurora4-1Nacional PotosíPrimera División
2024-03-03Nacional Potosí1-0AuroraPrimera División
2023-07-22Nacional Potosí0-0AuroraPrimera División
2023-02-19Aurora2-0Nacional PotosíPrimera División
2022-09-09Aurora1-5Nacional PotosíPrimera División

Other Apertura - 21 fixtures

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