Aurora vs Nacional Potosí: model vs market
| Source | Aurora | Draw | Nacional Potosí |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.10.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aurora, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 1.61 | 1.61 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.84 | +0.00 |
| Nacional Potosí | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aurora and Nacional Potosí expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Aurora / Nacional Potosí)
- 0.90 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Aurora / Nacional Potosí)
- 0.91 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aurora goals. Columns: Nacional Potosí goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aurora vs Nacional Potosí
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Nacional Potosí | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aurora or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Nacional Potosí) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win by 2+ | 29% | 3.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aurora and Nacional Potosí recent form
Aurora
2W 2D 2L
Nacional Potosí
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aurora at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-1
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 2.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 7 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nacional Potosí away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-6
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 8 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aurora at home only, Nacional Potosí away only.
Aurora vs Nacional Potosí head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Aurora 0 · draws 0 · Nacional Potosí 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Nacional Potosí | 2-0 | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-09-27 | Aurora | 1-2 | Nacional Potosí | Bolivia Primera División |
| 2025-05-16 | Nacional Potosí | 3-1 | Aurora | Bolivia Primera División |
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