Real Potosí vs The Strongest: model vs market
| Source | Real Potosí | Draw | The Strongest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Published | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Edge | +10% | +4% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.84.
- The market prices Real Potosí below the model: +9.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Potosí vs The Strongest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Potosí, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Potosí | 2.42 | 2.42 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
| The Strongest | 2.52 | 2.52 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Potosí and The Strongest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.18
- Attack rating (Real Potosí / The Strongest)
- 0.85 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Real Potosí / The Strongest)
- 0.51 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Potosí vs The Strongest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Potosí goals. Columns: The Strongest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Potosí vs The Strongest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Potosí vs The Strongest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Potosí | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| The Strongest | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Potosí or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or The Strongest) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Potosí win by 2+ | 23% | 4.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Potosí and The Strongest recent form
Real Potosí
2W 3D 1L
The Strongest
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Potosí at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.70
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
- They have won 7 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
The Strongest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
- They have won 11 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Potosí at home only, The Strongest away only.
Real Potosí vs The Strongest head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Real Potosí 0 · draws 1 · The Strongest 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | The Strongest | 0-0 | Real Potosí | Bolivia Primera División |
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