Updated

Bolivia Primera División · Apertura - 21

Real Potosí vs The Strongest

· Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte, Potosi· Referee G. A. Vargas Carreno

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Real Potosí to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real PotosíDrawThe Strongest

Real Potosí vs The Strongest: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal PotosíDrawThe Strongest
Model47%31%22%
Market38%26%36%
Published40%27%33%
Edge+2%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.85.
  • The market prices Real Potosí below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Potosí vs The Strongest odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Potosí, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.42Now 2.40 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Potosí2.422.40-0.02
Draw3.443.50+0.06
The Strongest2.522.53+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Potosí and The Strongest expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.34Real Potosí
0.85The Strongest
Total expected goals
2.19
Attack rating (Real Potosí / The Strongest)
0.86 / 1.26
Defence rating (Real Potosí / The Strongest)
0.51 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Potosí vs The Strongest score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.5% 8.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 1 13.8% 14.0% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.1% 8.5% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 3 4.5% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Real Potosí goals. Columns: The Strongest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Potosí vs The Strongest goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Potosí vs The Strongest

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Potosí40%2.49
Draw27%3.68
The Strongest33%3.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.68
Under 2.563%1.60
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.30
No57%1.77
Double chance1X (Real Potosí or draw)67%1.48
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or The Strongest)60%1.67
Handicap -1Real Potosí win by 2+23%4.36
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Potosí and The Strongest recent form

Real Potosí 2W 3D 1L
The Strongest 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Potosí at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-3-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.70
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
5 of 10
  • They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 20 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

The Strongest away

Record (W-D-L)
6-3-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
4 of 10
  • They have won 12 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 20 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Potosí at home only, The Strongest away only.

Expected lineups

Real Potosí lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 C. Martinez
  2. 35 C. Vedia
  3. 44 S. Severiche
  4. 4 K. Villegas
  5. 22 F. Supayabe
  6. 21 W. Fernandez
  7. 11 M. Gómez
  8. 90 L. Giménez
  9. 8 I. Cárdenas
  10. 77 J. Rojas
  11. 18 Jeferson Rivas

Bench: G. Anazgo, F. Suárez, V. Castellón, B. Condori, M. Velásquez, D. Cuellar, L. Alí, D. Sandy, J. Alipaz, R. Terrazas, Igor Soares, S. Plaza

The Strongest lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 L. Banegas
  2. 21 F. Quaglio
  3. 3 P. Pedraza
  4. 4 M. Chiatti
  5. 5 A. Jusino
  6. 8 K. Salvatierra
  7. 27 Dilan Saavedra
  8. 9 C. Ventura
  9. 30 J. Arrascaita
  10. 17 A. Estacio
  11. 26 G. Sotomayor

Bench: J. Welch, R. Castro, D. Valdivia, S. Arce, V. Cuellar, W. Saucedo, K. Adin Chacon Arrascayta, S. Melgar, R. Ribera, J. Lazaro, Pachu

Real Potosí vs The Strongest head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Potosí 0 · draws 1 · The Strongest 9.

Real PotosíDrawsThe Strongest
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10The Strongest0-0Real PotosíBolivia Primera División
2021-10-23The Strongest1-0Real PotosíPrimera División
2021-07-10Real Potosí1-3The StrongestPrimera División
2020-12-06Real Potosí3-5The StrongestPrimera División
2020-01-29The Strongest3-2Real PotosíPrimera División
2019-12-22Real Potosí1-3The StrongestPrimera División
2019-09-14The Strongest6-2Real PotosíPrimera División
2019-04-07Real Potosí0-2The StrongestPrimera División
2019-01-30The Strongest4-1Real PotosíPrimera División
2018-11-03The Strongest5-1Real PotosíPrimera División

Other Apertura - 21 fixtures

Before and after this match