Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Radnik Bijeljina	Draw	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Model	34%	27%	39%
Market	42%	29%	29%
Published	40%	29%	32%
Edge	-8%	-2%	+10%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Radnik Bijeljina, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.17Now 2.17 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Radnik Bijeljina	2.17	2.17	+0.00
Draw	3.10	3.10	+0.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	3.12	3.12	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Radnik Bijeljina and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.41Radnik Bijeljina

1.53Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Total expected goals: 2.94
Attack rating (Radnik Bijeljina / Zeljeznicar Sarajevo): 1.11 / 1.03
Defence rating (Radnik Bijeljina / Zeljeznicar Sarajevo): 1.66 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 7.0% 6.2% 3.2% 1.7% 1 6.3% 12.5% 8.7% 4.5% 2.4% 2 5.2% 8.0% 6.1% 3.1% 1.7% 3 2.4% 3.8% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 4+ 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Radnik Bijeljina goals. Columns: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Radnik Bijeljina	40%	2.52
	Draw	29%	3.49
	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	32%	3.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.78
	Under 2.5	44%	2.29
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.66
	No	40%	2.52
Double chance	1X (Radnik Bijeljina or draw)	68%	1.46
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)	60%	1.66
Handicap -1	Radnik Bijeljina win by 2+	16%	6.26
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

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Radnik Bijeljina and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo recent form

Radnik Bijeljina 0W 3D 3L

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Radnik Bijeljina at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 3.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.33
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Radnik Bijeljina at home only, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away only.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Radnik Bijeljina 1 · draws 2 · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.

25% 50% 25%

Radnik BijeljinaDrawsZeljeznicar Sarajevo

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-11	Radnik Bijeljina	0-3	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	Premijer Liga
2025-12-13	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	0-0	Radnik Bijeljina	Premijer Liga
2025-10-05	Radnik Bijeljina	1-0	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	Premijer Liga
2025-07-27	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	1-1	Radnik Bijeljina	Premijer Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Čelik vs FK Sarajevo 2026-10-10
Borac Banja Luka v BSK Banja Luka — match page 2026-10-10
Velež vs Siroki Brijeg — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Sloga Doboj vs Zrinjski 2026-10-10

Prediction snapshot Radnik Bijeljina to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Radnik Bijeljina