Velež vs Siroki Brijeg: model vs market
| Source | Velež | Draw | Siroki Brijeg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 26% |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | -14% | -1% | +15% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Velež vs Siroki Brijeg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Velež, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Velež | 1.98 | 1.98 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.15 | +0.00 |
| Siroki Brijeg | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Velež and Siroki Brijeg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Velež / Siroki Brijeg)
- 0.77 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Velež / Siroki Brijeg)
- 1.40 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Velež vs Siroki Brijeg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Velež goals. Columns: Siroki Brijeg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Velež vs Siroki Brijeg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Velež vs Siroki Brijeg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velež | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Siroki Brijeg | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Velež or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Siroki Brijeg) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Velež win by 2+ | 15% | 6.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Velež and Siroki Brijeg recent form
Velež
2W 1D 3L
Siroki Brijeg
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Velež at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
Siroki Brijeg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Velež at home only, Siroki Brijeg away only.
Velež vs Siroki Brijeg head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Velež 3 · draws 0 · Siroki Brijeg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Velež | 3-0 | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-02-15 | Siroki Brijeg | 1-0 | Velež | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-10-25 | Velež | 1-0 | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-08-10 | Siroki Brijeg | 1-3 | Velež | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Čelik vs FK Sarajevo 2026-10-10
- Borac Banja Luka v BSK Banja Luka — match page 2026-10-10
- Sloga Doboj vs Zrinjski 2026-10-10