Corinthians vs Mirassol preview
Corinthians face Mirassol with a 53% probability of winning compared to Mirassol's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Corinthians' expected goals of 1.06. However, Corinthians are struggling, with a recent form of D-L-L-L-L-L, while Mirassol has shown better form with W-L-D-W-D-W.
The match could see challenges for the predicted outcome. Both teams to score stands at 47%, indicating a potential for goals from both sides. Additionally, the Over 2.5 goals probability is at 39%, suggesting that a higher-scoring match is less likely. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain, particularly given the recent performances of both teams.
Corinthians vs Mirassol: model vs market
| Source | Corinthians | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Corinthians vs Mirassol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Corinthians, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 1.57 | 1.65 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.75 | -0.15 |
| Mirassol | 5.90 | 5.19 | -0.71 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Corinthians and Mirassol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Corinthians / Mirassol)
- 0.83 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Corinthians / Mirassol)
- 1.36 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Corinthians vs Mirassol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Corinthians goals. Columns: Mirassol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Corinthians vs Mirassol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Corinthians vs Mirassol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 51% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Mirassol | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.98 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Corinthians or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Mirassol) | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Corinthians win by 2+ | 13% | 7.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Corinthians and Mirassol recent form
Corinthians
0W 1D 5L
Mirassol
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Corinthians at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-9
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Corinthians at home only, Mirassol away only.
Corinthians vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Corinthians 1 · draws 0 · Mirassol 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Mirassol | 2-1 | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-05 | Corinthians | 3-0 | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-10 | Mirassol | 2-1 | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Fluminense vs Internacional 2026-10-28
- Santos v Palmeiras — match page 2026-10-28
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Remo vs Botafogo — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Coritiba vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-29
- Vasco DA Gama v Flamengo — match page 2026-10-29
- Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Corinthians, previous: Vasco DA Gama v Corinthians analysis
- Mirassol, previous: Mirassol v Sao Paulo analysis