Coritiba vs Vitoria preview
In the match between Coritiba and Vitoria, the 1X2 probabilities show Coritiba at 35%, a draw at 27%, and Vitoria at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Vitoria's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Coritiba has struggled, with 5 losses in their last 6 games.
Both teams to score has a 60% probability, and there's a 56% chance for Over 2.5 goals. Coritiba's expected goals stand at 1.42, while Vitoria's is slightly higher at 1.50. These factors suggest Vitoria may have the edge, but Coritiba's home advantage could alter the outcome.
Coritiba vs Vitoria: model vs market
| Source | Coritiba | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Coritiba and Vitoria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Coritiba / Vitoria)
- 0.85 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Coritiba / Vitoria)
- 1.47 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coritiba vs Vitoria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coritiba goals. Columns: Vitoria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coritiba vs Vitoria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coritiba vs Vitoria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 35% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Vitoria | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coritiba or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Vitoria) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitoria win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Coritiba and Vitoria recent form
Coritiba
0W 2D 4L
Vitoria
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coritiba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitoria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-6-10
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.06
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Coritiba at home only, Vitoria away only.
Coritiba vs Vitoria head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Coritiba 0 · draws 0 · Vitoria 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Vitoria | 4-1 | Coritiba | Brazil Serie A |
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- Atletico-MG v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-29
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- Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Coritiba, previous: Coritiba – Gremio, 2026-10-26
- Vitoria, previous: Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense prediction