Mirassol vs Internacional Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Mirassol vs Internacional preview

In the upcoming match between Mirassol and Internacional, the 1X2 probabilities show Mirassol at 43%, while Internacional stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Mirassol's expected goals are 1.48 compared to Internacional's 0.96, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Mirassol.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score has a probability of 49%, suggesting that Internacional could find the net despite their recent form of 1 win in 6 matches. Additionally, Mirassol's recent form includes 3 draws in their last 6 games, which could lead to a stalemate. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.

Mirassol vs Internacional: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mirassol	Draw	Internacional
Model	48%	29%	23%
Market	41%	28%	31%
Published	43%	28%	29%
Edge	+7%	+1%	-8%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.96.
The market prices Mirassol below the model: +7.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.

Mirassol and Internacional expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48Mirassol

0.96Internacional

Total expected goals: 2.44
Attack rating (Mirassol / Internacional): 0.92 / 0.89
Defence rating (Mirassol / Internacional): 1.01 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mirassol vs Internacional score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.9% 7.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 1 11.7% 13.6% 5.9% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.6% 9.2% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 3 4.7% 4.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Mirassol goals. Columns: Internacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mirassol vs Internacional goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mirassol vs Internacional

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mirassol	43%	2.33
	Draw	28%	3.55
	Internacional	29%	3.46
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.27
	Under 2.5	56%	1.79
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.04
	No	51%	1.96
Double chance	1X (Mirassol or draw)	71%	1.41
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Internacional)	57%	1.75
Handicap -1	Mirassol win by 2+	25%	4.03
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Mirassol and Internacional recent form

Mirassol 2W 3D 1L

Internacional 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mirassol at home

Record (W-D-L): 6-5-4
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.40
Goals against / match: 1.40
Clean sheets: 2 of 15

They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.

Internacional away

Record (W-D-L): 3-5-6
Win rate: 21%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.43
Clean sheets: 2 of 14

They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mirassol at home only, Internacional away only.

Mirassol vs Internacional head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Mirassol 2 · draws 1 · Internacional 0.

67% 33% 0%

MirassolDrawsInternacional

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-19	Internacional	1-2	Mirassol	Brazil Serie A
2025-10-15	Mirassol	3-1	Internacional	Brazil Serie A
2025-05-18	Internacional	1-1	Mirassol	Brazil Serie A

Before and after this match

Mirassol, previous: Bahia – Mirassol, 2026-10-11
Internacional, previous: Gremio – Internacional, 2026-10-11

Prediction snapshot Mirassol to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Mirassol