Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 30

Gremio vs Internacional

· Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre· Referee Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Gremio to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GremioDrawInternacional

Gremio vs Internacional: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGremioDrawInternacional
Model47%30%23%
Market32%30%38%
Published36%30%34%
Edge+4%0%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.88.
  • The market prices Gremio below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gremio vs Internacional odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gremio, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.33Now 2.91 +0.58
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gremio2.332.91+0.58
Draw3.323.13-0.19
Internacional2.922.50-0.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gremio and Internacional expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Gremio
0.88Internacional
Total expected goals
2.26
Attack rating (Gremio / Internacional)
0.85 / 0.90
Defence rating (Gremio / Internacional)
0.93 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gremio vs Internacional score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 8.0% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 1 13.1% 14.0% 5.6% 1.7% 0.4% 2 9.9% 8.7% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 4.5% 4.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Gremio goals. Columns: Internacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gremio vs Internacional goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gremio vs Internacional

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gremio36%2.78
Draw30%3.33
Internacional34%2.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.55
Under 2.561%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.22
No55%1.82
Double chance1X (Gremio or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Internacional)64%1.56
Handicap -1Gremio win by 2+23%4.31
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gremio and Internacional recent form

Gremio 1W 2D 3L
Internacional 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gremio at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-4-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Internacional away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-6
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gremio at home only, Internacional away only.

Injuries & availability

Gremio absences

  • Diego Caito health problems
  • Dodi yellow cards
  • J. Cabral inactive
  • Marlon muscle injury
  • Matheus Nascimento inactive

Internacional absences

  • A. Sanabria inactive
  • Juninho injury
  • Kayky ankle injury
  • S. Rochet lower back injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Gremio lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Weverton
  2. 23 Marlon
  3. 4 W. Kannemann
  4. 82 Wallace
  5. 27 Diego Caito
  6. 20 M. Villasanti
  7. 15 Danilo Barbosa
  8. 10 F. Krovinović
  9. 9 F. Amuzu
  10. 95 Carlos Vinícius
  11. 7 C. Pavón

Bench: F. Balbuena, Wagner Leonardo, J. Nardoni, Gustavo Martins, E. Noriega, Tetê, Gabriel Grando, Marcos Rocha, João Pedro, M. Braithwaite, Caio Paulista, Pedro Gabriel, J. Enamorado

Internacional lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 12 Anthoni
  2. 18 Juninho
  3. 25 G. Mercado
  4. 15 Bruno Gomes
  5. 35 B. Aguirre
  6. 29 Thiago Maia
  7. 5 R. Villagra
  8. 28 Vitinho
  9. 26 A. Bernabéi
  10. 10 Alan Patrick
  11. 9 Alerrandro

Bench: F. Torres, Matheus Bahia, J. Carbonero, Bruno Henrique, Ronaldo, N. Eliasson, Matheus Cunha, Paulinho, Calebe, Victor Gabriel, Victor Joao, J. Bezerra

Gremio vs Internacional head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Gremio 3 · draws 5 · Internacional 2.

GremioDrawsInternacional
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-03Gremio3-1InternacionalCopa Do Brasil
2026-08-27Internacional0-0GremioCopa Do Brasil
2026-04-11Internacional0-0GremioBrazil Serie A
2026-03-08Internacional1-1GremioGaúcho - 1
2026-03-01Gremio3-0InternacionalGaúcho - 1
2026-01-25Internacional4-2GremioGaúcho - 1
2025-09-21Internacional2-3GremioBrazil Serie A
2025-04-20Gremio1-1InternacionalBrazil Serie A
2025-03-16Internacional1-1GremioGaúcho - 1
2025-03-08Gremio0-2InternacionalGaúcho - 1

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match