Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 30

Palmeiras vs Corinthians

· Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo· Referee Anderson Daronco

Full time4 – 1

Alin prediction was Palmeiras to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

19% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PalmeirasDrawCorinthians

Palmeiras vs Corinthians: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePalmeirasDrawCorinthians
Model69%23%8%
Market58%25%17%
Published61%25%15%
Edge+3%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.48.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Palmeiras below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Palmeiras vs Corinthians odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.52Now 1.64 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Palmeiras1.521.64+0.12
Draw3.973.75-0.22
Corinthians6.405.57-0.83

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Palmeiras and Corinthians expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64Palmeiras
0.48Corinthians
Total expected goals
2.12
Attack rating (Palmeiras / Corinthians)
0.96 / 0.72
Defence rating (Palmeiras / Corinthians)
0.63 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Palmeiras vs Corinthians score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.9% 4.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1 18.8% 10.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 2 16.2% 7.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 3 8.9% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 5.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Palmeiras goals. Columns: Corinthians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Palmeiras vs Corinthians goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
30%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Palmeiras vs Corinthians

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Palmeiras61%1.65
Draw25%4.03
Corinthians15%6.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.69
Under 2.563%1.59
Both teams to scoreYes30%3.36
No70%1.42
Double chance1X (Palmeiras or draw)85%1.17
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Corinthians)39%2.53
Handicap -1Palmeiras win by 2+38%2.65
Push (exactly one goal)28%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Palmeiras and Corinthians recent form

Palmeiras 3W 2D 1L
Corinthians 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Palmeiras at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-3-1
Win rate
71%
Goals for / match
1.71
Goals against / match
0.64
Clean sheets
6 of 14
  • They have won 17 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Corinthians away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-6
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Palmeiras at home only, Corinthians away only.

Injuries & availability

Palmeiras absences

  • Jefte knee injury
  • Paulinho muscle injury

Corinthians absences

  • A. Carrillo lacking match fitness
  • Andre Ramalho health problems
  • Dieguinho inactive
  • Joao Pedro inactive
  • Kaio Cesar yellow cards
  • Kayke knee injury
  • R. Garro yellow cards
  • Z. Labyad knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Palmeiras lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Carlos Miguel
  2. 2 A. Barboza
  3. 15 G. Gómez
  4. 26 Murilo
  5. 22 J. Piquerez
  6. 30 Lucas Evangelista
  7. 8 Andreas Pereira
  8. 4 A. Giay
  9. 42 J. López
  10. 11 J. Arias
  11. 9 Vitor Roque

Bench: Bruno Fuchs, Felipe Anderson, Paulinho, Khellven, Marcelo Lomba, Marlon Freitas, Maurício, R. Sosa, E. Martínez, Larson, Luis Felipe, Arthur

Corinthians lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Hugo Souza
  2. 21 Matheus Bidu
  3. 13 Gustavo Henrique
  4. 3 Gabriel Paulista
  5. 2 Matheuzinho
  6. 14 Raniele
  7. 19 A. Carrillo
  8. 7 Breno
  9. 10 M. Depay
  10. 49 Andre
  11. 9 Yuri Alberto

Bench: João Pedro, André Ramalho, Vitinho, Pedro Raul, F. Angileri, Allan, Charles, Kauê Camargo, I. Machado, Guilherme Inácio, Dieguinho, J. Lingard

Palmeiras vs Corinthians head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Palmeiras 2 · draws 4 · Corinthians 4.

PalmeirasDrawsCorinthians
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Corinthians0-0PalmeirasBrazil Serie A
2026-02-08Corinthians0-1PalmeirasPaulista - A1
2025-08-31Corinthians1-1PalmeirasBrazil Serie A
2025-08-07Palmeiras0-2CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
2025-07-31Corinthians1-0PalmeirasCopa Do Brasil
2025-04-12Palmeiras2-0CorinthiansBrazil Serie A
2025-03-28Corinthians0-0PalmeirasPaulista - A1
2025-03-16Palmeiras0-1CorinthiansPaulista - A1
2025-02-06Palmeiras1-1CorinthiansPaulista - A1
2024-11-04Corinthians2-0PalmeirasSerie A

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match