Palmeiras vs Corinthians: model vs market
| Source | Palmeiras | Draw | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 23% | 8% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Published | 64% | 24% | 13% |
| Edge | +7% | 0% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palmeiras below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 1.52 | 1.51 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.97 | 3.94 | -0.03 |
| Corinthians | 6.40 | 6.50 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Palmeiras and Corinthians expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Palmeiras / Corinthians)
- 1.08 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Palmeiras / Corinthians)
- 0.61 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Palmeiras goals. Columns: Corinthians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Palmeiras vs Corinthians
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Corinthians | 13% | 7.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.23 |
| No | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Palmeiras or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Corinthians) | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win by 2+ | 41% | 2.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Palmeiras and Corinthians recent form
Palmeiras
3W 3D 0L
Corinthians
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Palmeiras at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-1
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 16 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Corinthians away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-5
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Palmeiras at home only, Corinthians away only.
Palmeiras vs Corinthians head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Palmeiras 1 · draws 2 · Corinthians 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Corinthians | 0-0 | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-31 | Corinthians | 1-1 | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-07 | Palmeiras | 0-2 | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2025-07-31 | Corinthians | 1-0 | Palmeiras | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2025-04-12 | Palmeiras | 2-0 | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A |
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