Updated

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Semi-finals

Fluminense vs Palmeiras

· Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro· Referee Facundo Tello

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Fluminense to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FluminenseDrawPalmeiras

Fluminense vs Palmeiras: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFluminenseDrawPalmeiras
Model35%31%34%
Market34%32%34%
Published34%32%34%
Edge0%0%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fluminense vs Palmeiras odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fluminense, 54 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 2.67Now 2.77 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fluminense2.672.77+0.10
Draw3.202.91-0.29
Palmeiras2.622.80+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fluminense and Palmeiras expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Fluminense
1.19Palmeiras
Total expected goals
2.43
Attack rating (Fluminense / Palmeiras)
1.36 / 1.28
Defence rating (Fluminense / Palmeiras)
1.02 / 0.67

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fluminense vs Palmeiras score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.1% 9.1% 6.2% 2.4% 0.9% 1 9.6% 14.3% 7.7% 3.0% 1.2% 2 6.8% 8.1% 4.8% 1.9% 0.7% 3 2.8% 3.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Fluminense goals. Columns: Palmeiras goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fluminense vs Palmeiras goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fluminense vs Palmeiras

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fluminense34%2.92
Draw32%3.13
Palmeiras34%2.96
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.39
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (Fluminense or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or Palmeiras)66%1.52
Handicap -1Fluminense win by 2+16%6.09
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fluminense and Palmeiras recent form

Fluminense 3W 0D 3L
Palmeiras 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fluminense at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Palmeiras away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fluminense at home only, Palmeiras away only.

Expected lineups

Fluminense lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Fábio
  2. 13 Guilherme Arana
  3. 29 J. Millán
  4. 3 Thiago Silva
  5. 23 Guga
  6. 8 Martinelli
  7. 16 Nonato
  8. 11 J. Savarino
  9. 10 PH Ganso
  10. 17 A. Canobbio
  11. 7 Hulk

Bench: Samuel Xavier, Renê, R. Castillo, Igor Rabello, Marcelo, Y. Soteldo, L. Acosta, Wesley Nata, Hércules, Jemmes, K. Serna, Otávio

Palmeiras lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Carlos Miguel
  2. 2 A. Barboza
  3. 15 G. Gómez
  4. 26 Murilo
  5. 22 J. Piquerez
  6. 17 Marlon Freitas
  7. 8 Andreas Pereira
  8. 4 A. Giay
  9. 30 Lucas Evangelista
  10. 11 J. Arias
  11. 42 J. López

Bench: Bruno Fuchs, Felipe Anderson, Paulinho, Khellven, Marcelo Lomba, Maurício, R. Sosa, E. Martínez, Heittor, Larson, Luis Felipe, Arthur

Fluminense vs Palmeiras head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Fluminense 4 · draws 3 · Palmeiras 3.

FluminenseDrawsPalmeiras
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-15Fluminense3-2PalmeirasBrazil Serie A
2026-02-26Palmeiras2-1FluminenseBrazil Serie A
2025-11-23Palmeiras0-0FluminenseBrazil Serie A
2025-07-23Fluminense1-2PalmeirasBrazil Serie A
2024-12-08Palmeiras0-1FluminenseSerie A
2024-07-25Fluminense1-0PalmeirasSerie A
2023-12-03Palmeiras1-0FluminenseSerie A
2023-08-06Fluminense2-1PalmeirasSerie A
2022-08-27Fluminense1-1PalmeirasSerie A
2022-05-08Palmeiras1-1FluminenseSerie A

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Before and after this match