Fluminense vs Santos preview
In the upcoming match between Fluminense and Santos, the 1X2 probabilities show Fluminense at 50%, draw at 26%, and Santos at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Fluminense has an expected goals figure of 2.05, while Santos sits at 1.11.
Fluminense's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 losses, while Santos has been strong with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. The model suggests a 61% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score. However, Santos could disrupt the prediction if they maintain their recent winning streak.
Fluminense vs Santos: model vs market
| Source | Fluminense | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | +11% | -4% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.11.
- The market prices Fluminense below the model: +11.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fluminense vs Santos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fluminense, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 2.25 | 2.00 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.50 | +0.16 |
| Santos | 3.10 | 3.58 | +0.48 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fluminense and Santos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Fluminense / Santos)
- 1.28 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Fluminense / Santos)
- 0.87 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fluminense vs Santos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fluminense goals. Columns: Santos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fluminense vs Santos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fluminense vs Santos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fluminense | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Santos | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fluminense or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Santos) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Fluminense and Santos recent form
Fluminense
4W 0D 2L
Santos
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fluminense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-1
- Win rate
- 73%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Fluminense at home only, Santos away only.
Fluminense vs Santos head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Fluminense 2 · draws 1 · Santos 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Santos | 2-3 | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-31 | Santos | 0-0 | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-13 | Fluminense | 1-0 | Santos | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico-MG v Coritiba — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras 2026-10-17
- Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-10-18
- Gremio v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-18
- Bahia vs Flamengo 2026-10-18
- Remo vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Corinthians vs Vitoria — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Fluminense, previous: Fluminense vs Palmeiras: odds and pick
- Fluminense, next: Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction
- Santos, previous: Atletico-MG v Santos analysis