Atletico-MG vs Coritiba preview
Atletico-MG faces Coritiba with a 67% probability of winning, while Coritiba sits at just 12%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which reflects Atletico-MG's expected goals of 2.92 compared to Coritiba's 0.99. Atletico-MG's recent form shows a mix of results, including two wins, while Coritiba has struggled with three losses in their last five matches.
The prediction could be challenged if Coritiba improves their scoring, as they have a 60% chance of both teams scoring. Additionally, the high 75% probability for Over 2.5 goals suggests that if Atletico-MG can dominate the game, they might increase their goal tally. However, Coritiba's previous win against Atletico-MG adds an unpredictable element to the match.
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba: model vs market
| Source | Atletico-MG | Draw | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 16% | 10% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 14% |
| Published | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | +10% | -6% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico-MG below the model: +10.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico-MG, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 1.45 | 1.44 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.25 | +0.25 |
| Coritiba | 7.00 | 6.88 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico-MG and Coritiba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.75
- Attack rating (Atletico-MG / Coritiba)
- 1.20 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Atletico-MG / Coritiba)
- 0.94 / 1.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico-MG goals. Columns: Coritiba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico-MG | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.92 | |
| Coritiba | 13% | 7.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico-MG or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Coritiba) | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win by 2+ | 55% | 1.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico-MG and Coritiba recent form
Atletico-MG
3W 2D 1L
Coritiba
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico-MG at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coritiba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.87
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico-MG at home only, Coritiba away only.
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico-MG 0 · draws 0 · Coritiba 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Coritiba | 2-0 | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Mirassol vs Internacional 2026-10-16
- Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc — match page 2026-10-17
- Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras 2026-10-17
- Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-10-18
- Fluminense vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Gremio v Cruzeiro — match page 2026-10-18
- Bahia vs Flamengo 2026-10-18
- Remo vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Atletico-MG, previous: Atletico-MG v Atletico Torque analysis
- Atletico-MG, next: Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG: odds and pick
- Coritiba, previous: Coritiba vs Botafogo prediction